Chicago Cubs: Nolan Arenado trade rumors do not add up
The Chicago Cubs off-season plans have been placed on hold due to the impending ruling on third baseman Kris Bryant‘s grievance over his Major League Baseball service teams. Recent rumors have linked the Cubs to Colorado Rockies all-star third baseman Nolan Arenado.
What is there to say about the Chicago Cubs off-season?
Nothing .
Outside of minor league deals for relief pitchers that can, at best, be considered reclamation projects, the Cubs have not done nothing.
The reason is that the Cubs’ front office has been given the mandate to not go over the luxury tax for a second straight season. With the Cubs’ current payroll commitments already having the team nearing that line, the front office has been trying to create payroll financial flexibility by trying to trade from their Major League Roster while also re-stocking the farm system with elite level prospects.
Enter the Kris Bryant trade rumors. We likely will be reaching the resolution of the Bryant trade rumors in the coming month as free agent third baseman Josh Donaldson finds his new home and, most importantly, there is a decision on Bryant’s grievance against the Cubs over his service time.
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Little has been discussed about what the Cubs would do after such a trade of Bryant in where they create financial wiggle room. Could a trade for Colorado Rockies’ all-star third baseman Nolan Arenando follow suit?
MLB.com insider Jon Paul Morosi linked the Cubs to Arenando in event that they do find a suitor for a Bryant.
Arenado would certainly answer the question of what the Cubs would do at the third base position in the event that Bryant is traded. Not only would Arenado answer the question but the argument could be made that the Rockies’ all-star would even be considered an improvement for the Cubs at the third base position.
Arenado has been a 5-WAR (wins above replacement) player for the Rockies over the course of the past four seasons. With the Rockies last season, Arenado boasted a line of .315/.379/.583/.962 with 41 home runs and 102 RBIs. Defensively, Arenado brings elite talent at the the third base position as he has won the National League Gold Glove award at third base for seven consecutive seasons.
Chicago Cubs
One would question why the Rockies would want to trade Arenado. Well, the answer is one of two things. The Rockies either want to streamline their farm system with elite level talent or they, like the Cubs, are looking to cut costs.
That would be the reason why the Cubs are highly unlikely to be able to pull off a deal for Arenado.
The Cubs do not have elite level talent in the farm-system to be able to offer up to the Rockies in a trade for Arenado. The only way such a trade would work is if the Cubs and Rockies were to swap Bryant and Arenado. A move that would not make too much sense for the Rockies’ considering they have cost certainty with Arenado, who is also the better player.
As for the second reason, the Rockies are looking to dump salary. Arenado signed an 8-year, $260 million extension with the Rockies last off-season with an option after the 2021 season. In terms of this season, Arenado is set to cost $32.5 million against the team’s luxury tax payroll. One does not need their CPA license to figure that those financials would actually be worse for the Cubs than Bryant, who will likely be in the $20 million range this season.
Meaning, if the Cubs sole purpose of trading Bryant is to avoid the luxury tax then trading for a player that will earn approximately $12.5 million more than him in 2020 does not seem like something the team would be willing to do.
For that reason, the Arenado rumors may be fun discuss for the Cubs’ fans but at the end of the day there is no logical substance to them. Much like the Cubs’ off-season.