Chicago Cubs: Time to accept Ian Happ in centerfield in 2020?

Tom Ricketts has made it clear that the Cubs have no intention of exceeding the luxury tax threshold again. So it’s time to accept Ian Happ in centerfield.

If you recall, Ian Happ was considered to be one of the best hitting prospects coming out of the 2015 MLB Draft. The Chicago Cubs selected him with the ninth overall pick, adding him an already prosperous group of slugging prospects, and his first two seasons suggested he would live up to his potential. But despite a 15.2 percent walk rate in 2018, Happ struck out in 36 percent of his at-bats.

The demotion for the majority of the 2019 season was good for Happ. The bright lights of Chicago were off him, and he could focus on getting his timing down; the same timing that produced a 1.164 OPS in his final year at the University of Cincinnati. Happ was recalled from Triple-A Iowa at the end of July and slashed .264/.333/.564 with 11 home runs and 30 RBI in 58 games.

And while it’s a rather small sample size, there’s no denying that Happ’s decreased strikeout percentage was encouraging going forward. According to Fangraphs, he had an offensive runs above average rating of 7.0, nearly double his 2018 number.

All the focus this offseason has been on bringing Nick Castellanos back next season, and for a good reason. Acquired at the trade deadline, the former Detroit Tiger was one of the only hitters to produce consistently. However, combined with the Cubs’ lack of available payroll and his agent (Scott Boras), it seems likely that Castellanos will be playing in another uniform next year.

But a productive Ian Happ in 2020 could be just as effective as Castellanos and would allow Jason Heyward to continue playing at his natural position in right field. The Albert Almora experiment is just about over, outside of substantial improvement next year, so one could argue that centerfield is Happ’s job to lose.

Other stories surrounding this club might have an impact on players competing for playing time if one or both Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras were to be moved. And the Cubs have reportedly requested several players from the Atlanta Braves for Bryant, so we’ll monitor that situation.

It’s not uncommon for young players to have issues striking out early in their careers, some requiring a demotion and others adjusting to the league. Anthony Rizzo is a prime example of a player that struggled after being called up with the San Diego Padres, striking out at an alarming 30.1 percent of his at-bats while hitting .141.

Yes, time is not on Happ’s side in terms of the Cubs’ window for contention, but consider this. Castellanos’ production with the Cubs equated to a 134 wRC+ while walking at a 4.4 percent clip. Happ’s output in 58 games resulted in a 127 wRC+ and walked in nearly 10 percent of his plate appearances.

The Cubs will look foolish if Happ’s issues resurface next season, but they can live with his 25 percent strikeout rate if he’s consistently producing.