Bears: Chicago can still win the division – but it’s a long shot

The Chicago Bears are technically still contenders for the NFC North championship. These three key components need to happen for this unlikely option to become a reality.

The Chicago Bears have been chasing the wildcard for a few weeks now. There have been many paths to the playoffs for Chicago talked about all over. The most likely path has Chicago as the sixth seed. Before the L.A. Rams shocked the Seahawks last Sunday, the Bears could have taken the wildcard at 9-7. Now, they still can, but 10-6 seems like a must to get in.

Traveling to Green Bay to win a must-win game isn’t ideal for the Bears. Looking at recent history, Mitchell Trubisky is 1-3 against the Packers. Diving deeper, the Bears are 4-16 in 20 matchups this past decade. Two of those wins were in Green Bay. If there were ever a bright spot, that would be it. Still, that’s worse than Buffalo against New England.

The Packers lead the all-time series at 98-95-6. For the many decades, the Bears used to own the Packers. Now, it’s a totally different story. Since Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, it’s been all Green Bay. That still doesn’t determine anything. What happens today at 1 pm EST determines everything.

If the Bears can win, they’re playoff chances spike. They’d be 8-6, have the Packers out of their way, and have one game left against the Vikings. If the Vikings lose against the Chargers, what happens Week 16 for Minnesota doesn’t matter, really. After Week 15, it would be beautiful to see the Bears at 8-6, the Vikings at 9-5, and the Packers at 10-4.

Just for wildcard perspective, the Cowboys beating the Rams is a must for Chicago. Chances are, the Cardinals won’t beat the Rams Week 17. With the Rams having the tie-breaker against Chicago, they have to finish 9-7 at best.

With two games left, the Bears would be one game out of the wildcard, and two games out of the division. If the Bears were to win out and the Packers were to lose out, the Bears would have the tie-breaker against the Packers. Having the tie-breaker could knock them out of the playoffs completely.

That brings us to Week 16. The Bears have their last home game of the season against Kansas City. Right now, Patrick Mahomes is dealing with a “scary” hand injury. That will affect the play-calling and how the offense plays. With Akiem Hicks back, the Bears’ defense will improve. An improved Bears’ defense against a crippled Chiefs’ offense in Chicago gives the Bears the advantage.

If the Bears win, they’d be 9-6. In this scenario, the Vikings already lost to the Chargers in Week 15. They play the Green Bay Packers and winning that game helps Chicago in this scenario. For the wildcard, the Packers winning leaves Minnesota at 9-6, tied with the Bears. If they were to somehow tie and the Rams finished 9-7, the Bears would get in over them.

After Week 16, Chicago stands at 9-6, Green Bay has the wildcard spot at 10-5, and Minnesota leads the division at 10-5. The Bears finish the season off in Minnesota. The Packers finish the season off in Detroit. Both games are being played at 1 PM EST.

Week 17 comes along. The Bears beat the 10-5 Vikings and both teams are 10-6. Since the Bears beat the Vikings earlier in the season and are 5-1 in the division, they hold the tie-breaker. If somehow the Lions can beat the Packers, they’d finish 10-6 too.

The top three teams in the division are now 10-6. The Bears beat the Vikings twice so if they’d tie in their record, they have the advantage there. The Bears also at 10-6 beat the Packers once, but only lost in the division once. A 5-1 division record is better than 3-3. Chicago would hold the tie-breaker against Green Bay in this scenario.

Minnesota would have the tie-breaker against Green Bay because they’d have more NFC wins. The Packers would be 7-5 and the Vikings would be 8-4. That knocks Green Bay out if the Rams finish 10-6. If the Rams were to win out, they’d finish 11-5. Doing simple math, 11-5 beats 10-6.

This scenario has less than a 1% chance of happening. CBS Sports have the Bears at 3% for even making the playoffs. The most likely playoff path is the sixth seed. That involves the Rams losing twice and the Vikings losing once before Week 17. The Bears also need to win out.

These scenarios are fun to look at. It would be the most impossible-possible thing that’s ever happened in recent NFL history. With the toughest finish in football, finishing 9-7 for the Bears is a success. Hopefully, Trubisky has some magic in store for today’s game. Let’s see what happens. Go Bears, go Chargers, and go Cowboys!