Cubs: Is Albert Almora the odd man out in 2020?

Once a promising prospect for the Chicago Cubs, Albert Almora Jr. has become nothing more than a defensive specialist. Is he on the way out?

As the first draft pick for Theo Epstein, Albert Almora Jr. was a promising prospect after being named USA Baseball’s athlete of the year in 2011. While power was never going to be part of Almora’s game, his contact rate was believed to be a strength for the former sixth overall pick. His glove was always ahead of his bat and after batting 0.318 in 54 Triple-A games, Almora made his Chicago Cubs debut on June 7, 2016.

The then 22-year-old had an extremely heads-up play in the 10th inning of Game 7 of the World Series, tagging up from first to second on a deep fly ball to centerfield off the bat of Kris Bryant. And once Dexter Fowler departed via free agency that offseason, it looked like a clear path was made for Almora to become the everyday centerfielder. He hit 0.298 and 0.286 in 2017 and 2018, respectively, all while playing Gold Glove defense. If you recall, he made a couple of spectacular catches in a wind-aided stellar performance by Brett Anderson.

This past season, Almora fell off a cliff, batting just 0.236 in 130 games and was eventually demoted to Triple-A to figure out some things. He had the highest groundball rate of his career at 53.1 percent and a 0.255 BABIP which was well below his career average of 0.312. Might it have just been something as simple as an unlucky year? Perhaps.

But perhaps the league has adjusted to Almora and his 2019 season was certainly not helped when one of his foul balls went into the stands, injuring a young child in the process. Almora was visibly shaken by the incident, which also spawned several teams to reconsider extending their protective netting; in some cases down to the foul poles.

Almora is projected to make $1.8 million in arbitration this offseason is under team control through the 2022 season. The Cubs could potentially non-tender him if they are serious about cutting payroll. And declining Kendall Graveman‘s $3 million club option this past weekend indicates that they are. Sunday was the deadline for all teams to exercise their club options on players and after the dust has settled, the Cubs are currently at a projected 2020 Opening Day payroll of $196 million.

With the Luxury Tax threshold projected to be somewhere in the neighborhood of $208 million, the Cubs do have some flexibility, but not a lot. Ian Happ could, certainly, be a candidate to see more time in centerfield in 2020 but it will likely depend on what the team would like to do with Nick Castellanos. A contract extension would likely permanently shift Jason Heyward over to centerfield which would make both Happ and Almora expendable.

Non-tendering Addison Russell‘s projected $5.1 million in arbitration would also create some financial flexibility and we’ve had more than enough sample size to know he’s not the answer long-term at second base. Real changes are going to occur this offseason for the Cubs. They’ve already made that clear and declining Graveman’s option was a start. Might Almora be next on the chopping block?