Chicago Cubs: Lester’s regression was to be expected

Jon Lester may arguably go down as the greatest free-agent signing for the Chicago Cubs but his regression this past season was not a surprise.

When Jon Lester agreed to join the Chicago Cubs during the 2014 offseason, it was a franchise-changing signing. The team was coming off a 73-89 record but was loaded with top-notch prospects, several who made their debut in 2014. After appearing in the 1945 World Series, the Cubs went on quite the postseason drought making a couple of appearances in the 1980s, one in 1998, and a handful in the early 2000s.

Still, no World Series had been brought back to the north side since 1908 but Jon Lester’s signing forever changed the direction of the franchise. Lester was no stranger to winning, as he had won two World Series with the Boston Red Sox in 2007 and 2013. A lot of credit has to be given to now-former Cubs manager, Joe Maddon, for creating a culture that was both fun for the younger prospects as well as the veterans.

Lester’s first year with the team got off to a rocky start with a 6.23 ERA in the month of April. However, he is notoriously a slow starter (no pun intended) and quickly turned it around in the month of May with a 1.76 ERA. He would finish the year with a 3.34 ERA while leading the Cubs to a 97-win season and a wild-card berth that would send them on an unexpected journey to the National League Championship Series.

The following year, the Cubs continued to add talent in the form of Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist. The latter was just coming off helping the Kansas City Royals win their first World Series championship since the 1985 season. Lester was an integral part of the 2016 World Series team, finishing the regular season with a 2.44 ERA and second in the Cy Young voting.

Everyone was well aware that inking Jon Lester to a six-year deal at age 31 was risky given the expected decline that was going to happen near the end of his contract. If we’re being honest, Lester looked like he was headed for a nose-dive last season after posting a 4.33 ERA in 2017 but followed that with a 3.32 ERA during the 2018 season and leading the team back to the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season.

In the first half of the 2019 season, Lester continued to prove his doubters wrong, posting a 3.72 ERA. But something changed after the break and perhaps we are starting to finally see the regression we all knew was coming. Now 35, Lester posted a 5.35 ERA in the second half, including a 7.12 ERA in the month of August.

A closer review of his month of August indicates that Lester was utilizing his curveball at a season-high 18.1 percent. That pitch was working for him as he allowed opponents to bat just 0.222 but likely saw an increase due to the damage opponents were doing off his fastball. In August, Lester threw 131 fastballs and opponents were able to hit 0.400 of his primary pitch, thus he utilized it at a season-low 22.8 percent. This was a massive decline from his month of July, in which he utilized his fastball 32.9 percent and limited opponents to a 0.250 batting average.

Lester was on the receiving end of being squeezed several times throughout the month of August, so trying to catch too much of the zone likely resulted in the damage.

Under contract for just one more year, Jon Lester will try to put a stamp on a Hall of Fame career, one that saw him arguably have the best season of his career in 2016 and helped lead the Cubs to their first World Series title in 108 years. Can he still be effective next season? Absolutely. But expecting him to be the ace of this staff is no longer realistic.