Chicago Cubs: Would Jon Lester be odd man out in playoff rotation?

Chicago Cubs starter Jon Lester was roughed up again on Friday afternoon. In a playoff scenario, would he be the odd man out of the rotation?

It sounds crazy to actually put this into words given his track record, but would Chicago Cubs starter Jon Lester be left off a playoff rotation right now? Before you bring out your pitch forks, let me explain. When Lester signed with the Cubs back in the 2014 offseason, it was a huge turn in the organization’s direction.

The team hasn’t had a losing record since Lester has been in a Cubs uniform and he’s put up some of the best numbers of his career in his first few seasons. However, he’s been pretty lousy, especially in the second half of this season, to say the least.

Lester pitched just 4.1 innings on Friday afternoon, allowing 9 hits, 6 earned runs and a home run that came in top of the first inning. His ERA on the seasons sits at 4.49 but is at 5.45 in the second half of this season, including 7.65 in the month of August.

By the 5th inning, the game was effectively over and fans were filing out. Lester is on pace to through the fewest number of innings since the 2007 season when he was still with the Red Sox. However, at the current rate, he’s going to allow for a career-high in home runs.

He’s mostly kept his walks down but hasn’t had much success on his fastball nor has he used it as much this season. Entering Friday, Lester was utilizing his primary pitch at just a 39 percent clip when his average sits near 52 percent.

That tells me he’s having problems locating it or not getting the calls and has to rely on his secondary pitches which aren’t fooling as many batters as they used to. So all that said, if the Cubs were to make the postseason, I think my three starters would be Yu Darvish, Jose Quintana, and Kyle Hendricks.

It’s sad to say and we knew regression was going to come eventually, but Lester’s first half of the season was suggesting otherwise (3.72 ERA in 94.1 innings). Lester is under contract through the 2020 season but has a $25 million vested option for 2021 as well. If the Cubs decide to decline the option, they will have a $10 million buyout.