Chicago Bears: Comparisons leading to unfair evaluation of Mitchell Trubisky

It appears the player comparisons are leading to an unfair evaluation of the Chicago Bears quarterback.

There are a few things you can count on — death, taxes, and a weekly flurry of hate surrounding Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky on social media. This week was no exception, as some popular Twitter personalities selectively quoted Matt Nagy, as well as a story published in the Chicago Tribune, to attempt to reaffirm preexisting biases.

We have touched on what some of those biases could be in previous articles. Those could include an honest evaluation of Trubisky, a desire to drive traffic to their site or show, an unwillingness to perform a deep dive analysis of his performance (of which there is still a fair amount to be critical of) or most likely, to fit a pre-draft narrative they had about him.

The last two reasons are probably the most frustrating, in that they both come across as disingenuous. Either they are trying to validate their own opinion and will ignore any evidence that doesn’t conform (confirmation bias) or they hand-select a few components of his game, and use it to form a definite conclusion about what kind of player he will be.

Let’s be clear — Trubisky has some work to do in a few areas, mainly progressing through his reads, and deep-ball accuracy. That last point is important — and that is that it’s his deep ball accuracy that needs improvement. To simply label him an “inaccurate” passer is lazy and paints him with too broad of a brush. In fact, his short to intermediate routes with one exception (the middle of the field) were at or above league average. A huge improvement from 2017.

In any event, any objective fan or pundit can (and should be able to) admit that Trubisky has aspects of his game that must be cleaned up if he is going to take the next step. And based on his work ethic, you should have every reason to believe he will do just that.

However, while he develops and undergoes his transformation to a franchise NFL quarterback, there is something else everyone must keep in mind. Trubisky is not Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson. Go ahead and say it with me out loud, “Mitch Trubisky is not Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson.” That may seem obvious, but it has not resonated with everyone and is another reason for the Trubisky hate.

In previously highlighting all the reasons for the disrespect, we may have overlooked the biggest one of them all — which is that he is constantly being compared to Mahomes and Watson. It’s unfair for a variety of reasons.

First, playing the “what if” game is pointless. There is nothing that will change the results of the 2017 NFL Draft, so why torture yourself in wondering what if history unfolded differently. Moreover, Trubisky is not to blame for where he was selected, so your ire, if any, should be directed at Ryan Pace and not Trubisky.

Second, to compare them at this stage in their career is unfair. Putting aside talent, based on experience alone, you cannot reasonably expect Trubisy to be playing at the same level as Mahomes and Watson.

Let’s take a quick look at some numbers. In his career, Trubisky threw a total of 572 passes. By contrast, Mahomes threw 1,349 and Watson threw 1,207. In fact, Mahomes had two seasons (2015 and 2016) in which he threw more passes (573 and 591 respectively) than Trubsiky threw in his entire career! Watson had one such season, throwing 579 passes in 2016. (All statistics courtesy of sportsreference.com). In fact, Trubisky only had a total of 693 total snaps in college!  Snaps! That is incredibly low.

To further put his inexperience into perspective, from 2012-2016, the top three quarterbacks taken in those drafts averaged 32 starts in college. Trubisky had a total of 13. Mahomes played in 32 and Watson played in 38 — that’s practically three-times the number of games as Mitch.

Need further proof of just how difficult it is to make the leap to starting NFL quarterback with such little experience? Take a look at what Hall of Famer Gil Brandt said about it just before the 2017 draft in this piece about Trubisky. Brandt said:

"“That’s like a guy being in third grade … saying he really understands defenses. All the sudden the next move is to MIT as a graduate student.”"

So forget “Offense Level 202” as Nagy put it. Trubisky is taking graduate-level courses — and doing a mighty fine job of it all things considered. With a dearth of in-game experience, and a largely wasted rookie year (that may have done more harm than good), Trubisky has made incredible strides in just one year in Nagy’s offense. Despite his improvement, he is still miles behind Mahomes and Watson in terms of experience.

At some point in the future, Trubisky could close the gap. At this point, Mahomes looks other-worldly and could be a once in a generation type player. Watson has been terrific in his short tenure in Houston. While Trubisky may be lagging behind them at the moment, he is still ascending. As the disparity in experience starts to diminish, and Trubisky gains more of it along with confidence, we’ll really know what he’s going to be.

For the time being the Bears are allowing him to develop at a slower pace —  largely because they can. They have the luxury of not throwing him to the wolves because of how good they are as a team. The team knew he would need time to develop and overcome the inexperience issue. The addition of Khalil Mack accelerated expectations, but it did not magically make Trubisky more experienced. That can only come with time, as can an honest and fair evaluation of Trubisky. Expecting him to be anyone other than who he is at the moment, is just patently unfair.