Chicago Cubs: Quintana’s resurgence due to newfound pitch

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jose Quintana has been dominant over his last three starts. His success can primarily be attributed to how effective his changeup has been.

To this point, the Chicago Cubs have received a mix return on investment in starting pitcher Jose Quintana, who came over in the Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease trade with the White Sox. Quintana looked terrific in his very first start in a Cub uniform against the Baltimore Orioles, but has been very up and down since.

Quintana was off to a rough start in 2019. In just two outings, he was the proud owner of a 10.29 ERA. Since then, he has a ridiculous 0.86 ERA in three starts. So what’s been the reason for the instant success?

His changeup has, arguably, been his best pitch over that time span. When Quintana has good command of his changeup, he is a completely different pitcher, as we have seen lately. At 9.8 percent of his total pitches in 2019, this is the most Quintana has utilized this pitch since 2015 (via Fangraphs). By the way, Quintana finished the 2015 season with a 3.36 ERA in 32 starts. I think we would all take from him in 2019, right?

Let’s dive a little deeper into the stats. Quintana appeared out of the bullpen against the Rangers in the first series and threw his secondary pitch just 3.7 percent of the 81 pitches he threw that day, which equates to about three pitches. Quintana rarely throws his changeup against lefty hitters, and with how many lefties there are in that Rangers lineup, the low usage makes a lot of sense.

However, against Milwaukee he threw his changeup 7.9 percent of his 76 pitches. Still a fairly small sample size, but enough to determine why it was not effective (via Fangraphs).

Of the six changeups he threw that evening, you can see how much of the strike zone they were getting. The Brewers lit him up to the tune of eight earned runs and three home-runs in just three innings of work. You prefer to see the changeup dropping off well below the zone. I’m not saying the Brewers did all their damage on his changeups.

What I am saying is that he did not have good command of it. Add in the fact that he did not have good location of his fastball or sinker that evening, and it was a recipe for disaster. Much like Kyle Hendricks, when his secondary pitches are properly located is usually when he has the most success.

In Quintana’s next start against the Pirates, he threw his changeup a season-high 13.1 percent of his 99 pitches. Against a heavy right-handed Pirates lineup, his changeup was working well for him that evening (via Fangraphs).

Besides the one outlier, notice how most of his changeups are below the strike zone? Batters swing right over the top of the those and can do little with the three that found the lower part of the strike zone.

In his last three starts, Quintana is forcing batters to swing at 30.8 percent of pitches outside the zone, including a season-high of 37.8 percent against the Marlins. Keeping hitters off balance at the plate has been extremely effective for Quintana, so that is why his changeup is key for him.

Look at last season as an example. Quintana threw his changeup at just 6.9 percent of his pitches and finished with a 4.03 ERA. Not terrible, but not great either as he had his worst walk percentage (9.2) of his career and had the lowest number of strikeouts in his career (as a regular starter). He also got batters to swing at just 27.6 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone, the lowest since his rookie year.

Quintana’s changeup is vital to his success, and I was saying during the game last night that this kind of turnaround was Arrieta-like in terms of how he looked last season and in the first two appearances this season.