Chicago Cubs: Kyle Schwarber is primed for a huge 2019 season

The Chicago Cubs offense has been dominant early on this year, and an improved Kyle Schwarber is a big reason why.

Just 10 games into the Chicago Cubs‘ season, areas of concerns that troubled fans all offseason are already flaring up.

By far the most frustrating part of the early season has been the team’s bullpen. It’s not an exaggeration to say it’s been a disaster. The group has pitched to a collective 6.92 ERA and has blown multiple leads late in games.

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The starting pitchers also haven’t inspired confidence. Jon Lester is the only one who’s pitched well thus far, and he was just put on the Injured List following his trip around the bases in the second inning of the Wrigley home opener.

The only part of the Cubs that’s clicking right now is the offense. Through the season’s first 10 games, the Cubs have scored 72 runs. It seems that the front office’s plan to stand pat this offseason, expecting improvement from within, is working out.

Of all the hitters, perhaps the most exciting developments have come from Kyle Schwarber.

Through the season’s first 10 games, Schwarber is slashing .250/.325/.528. That equates to an .853 OPS – that number would’ve been good for 28th among qualified hitters in 2018.

What’s really been impressive with Schwarber so far are that his peripheral numbers indicate that his traditional slash line may only improve.

In his first 40 trips to the plate in 2019, Schwarber has posted a 17.5 percent strikeout rate. That’s 10 percentage points better than where he finished the 2018 season, and 11.1 percent better than his career average.

The marked improvement in his strikeout rate seems to be due to better vision at the plate. According to Baseball Info Solutions, his O-Swing%, a statistic that measures how often a hitter swings at pitches outside of the strike zone, has also dropped precipitously. Schwarber’s swung at just 18.6 percent of balls he’s seen, that’s 7 percent better than last year.

Not only is he seeing pitches outside of the zone better, but he’s also swung at strikes 5 percent more often this year. Those two things have combined to increase his overall contact rate at the plate from 72 percent in 2018 to 83.6 percent in 2019.

To illustrate this point, take a look at his zone profile from BrooksBaseball.net. Here is his whiff percentage displayed by zone in 2018.

The redder the square, the more likely Schwarber was to swing and miss at a pitch located in that zone. Here’s the same graphic with his results from this year.

You can see that Schwarber’s been much better at making contact on low strikes and even on balls well below the zone. It no longer looks like an area that pitchers can manipulate against Schwarber to generate swings and misses.

Not only has Schwarber demonstrated a better eye at the plate this year, but when he’s made contact, he’s done quite a bit of damage. According to Statcast data, Schwarber’s average exit velocity is up again for the second straight year.

Schwarber is currently slugging a solid .528, but based on his batted balls, his expected slugging percentage is sitting one hundred points higher at .628 – that’s good enough to be in the 89th percentile of all MLB hitters.

One final improvement that Schwarber’s displayed early on this year is his ability to hit lefties.

Facing southpaws has been a sore spot for Schwarber throughout his short career. In 2017 he posted a .648 OPS against lefties. In 2018 that number was nearly identical at .654. So far this season, he’s looked much better facing left-handed pitchers, slashing .250/.455/.750 against them, good for a 1.205 OPS.

Schwarber’s early season returns should be enough to show Joe Maddon that it’s past time for him to be the everyday left fielder, regardless of the handedness of the opposing team’s starting pitcher.

It would be misleading to not mention that these statistics are reflected on what’s happened in just 10 games and 40 plate appearances for Schwarber. There is certainly a chance that his numbers regress closer to his career marks, however, he is just 26-years-old, so it’s not hard to believe that he’d continue to improve at the plate.

If Schwarber continues to strike out less, hit the ball harder, and perform better against left-handed pitchers, having him hit behind the already dangerous trio of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez just makes the Cubs lineup all the more fearsome.