Chicago Cubs Mailbag: Spring Training 2019 Edition

4. What to expect from the starters

The theme of this mailbag has been pitching, so let’s dive deeper with an in-depth look at two of the Cubs starters.

In 2019, the Cubs starting pitcher I’m most excited for is Yu Darvish. Although last year left a bad taste in the mouths of many Cubs fans, I view it more as a fluke year and think he could return to dominance in 2019.

Prior to his injury-riddled first season in Wrigleyville, Darvish was outstanding. After recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2015, Darvish pitched about half a season in 2016. In 2016 and 2017, his two latest seasons before signing with the Cubs, he posted a 3.70 ERA over 287 innings in 48 starts.

The ERA is a bit higher than expected, but his FIP over that time was 3.57, the 21st best mark of all starters. An even better sign was that even post-Tommy John surgery, he still excelled at getting player to swing and miss without issuing many walks. Darvish’s 21.3 percent K-BB% was the ninth best among starters during that two-year span.

Darvish has looked healthy this spring, and I think Cubs fans should be excited to have him in 2019 and beyond. If he plays well, he’ll be a leading candidate for the Comeback Player of the Year award. Darvish could reasonably win 15+ games, post an ERA in the 3.00-3.50 range, and strike out over 200 batters.

On the other end of the spectrum, I’m not expecting great things from Jon Lester.

Cubs fans rightfully love Lester. He’s likely the best free agent signing in the history of Chicago sports. But even though he managed to go 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA last year, the peripheral numbers suggest a harsh decline may be coming.

Lester’s strikeout rate fell for the fourth straight season last year. He struck out 19.6 percent of batters, a four percent drop from 2017. That can be largely attributed to his swinging strike rate falling below 10 percent for the first time since he’s been a Cub.

It’s not just fewer strikeouts that are plaguing Lester. His walk rate rose for the third straight season as well. Put that all together and his K-BB% dropped for the fifth straight season all the way down to 11.2 percent. In his first year on the North Side, he posted a 19.3 percent rate.

All of those statistics show how Lester did when batters didn’t put the ball in play, but even when they made contact, the results weren’t good. His groundball rate and his hard contact rate were both the second worst marks of his career, surpassed only by his shortened 2007 season.

Lester was able to dance around bad peripheral numbers and maintain a good record and ERA in 2018, but predictive ERA stats like FIP and SIERRA suggest that won’t continue.

I hope Lester can stay a solid part of the Cubs rotation over the final two years of his contract, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him struggle and finish the year with an ERA north of 4.50.