Chicago Cubs Mailbag: Spring Training 2019 Edition

3. Breakout player

There are plenty of good options on the Cubs roster to name as the ‘breakout player’ this season, but I think Happ is primed to start delivering on his high potential.

Last year was supposed to be Happ’s huge season. He had a phenomenal spring training and started the season off with a bang, hitting a home run on the very first pitch of the MLB season.

Although it started well, Happ’s 2018 season was a disappointment. He hit .233/.353/.408 with 15 home runs and 8 steals. It wasn’t a disastrous season, but he didn’t build much on his solid debut in 2017.

On the plus side for Happ, he took a big step forward in plate discipline. He swung at fewer pitches out of the zone and his walk rate reflected that, bumping up from 9.4 percent in 2017 to 15.2 percent in 2018.

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Oddly enough though, although he was better at not swinging at balls, he was worse at making contact. His contact rate fell, and because of that, his already high strikeout rate went even higher. He struck out in 36.1 percent of his plate appearances last season – that’s the second highest rate of any player who had at least 450 plate appearances.

Maybe the pressure and sky-high expectations were too much for Happ, but I think it’s more likely that he struggled because he was just 23-years-old and it was his first full season at the MLB level.

Happ is incredibly young and it’s easy to forget that he doesn’t have the same amount of MLB experience as Bryant, Javier Baez, and the rest of the young position players.

Even though Happ was a top prospect and progressed quickly through the minor leagues, it can often take high ranking prospects a few seasons in the MLB to get comfortable and start performing at their expected level.

With less pressure on him and another year of experience under his belt, I think Happ could be in store for a big 2019 season. He’ll need to cut his strikeout rate, but that’s not an outlandish thing to expect from him. At all levels of the minor leagues, he struck out just over 20 percent of the time – that’s significantly lower than his 33.8 percent career strikeout rate in the majors.

If Happ can limit the strikeouts, it’s reasonable to expect him to develop into someone with a .260/.370/.450 batting line. He has good power and speed skills, making him a strong candidate to put up a 20/20 season. Happ could even hit over 30 home runs if things go right.

The prospects part of this question was addressed back in the answer to the first question, so I won’t go into tons of detail, but Happ, Schwarber, Almora, and Russell all seem to be the leading contenders to be dealt away for prospects.

In a worst-case scenario in which the Cubs find themselves out of playoff contention before the trade deadline, they could also deal away some pitchers who will be free agents at the end of the season.

Hamels, Morrow, Strop, and Cishek would all likely be on the trade block if the Cubs collapse. Additionally, if Chatwood pitches well out of the bullpen and in spot starts, the Cubs could also seek to move him to a team needing another viable starter.

I think it’s unlikely to happen, but a meltdown situation is possible with the fragility of the Cubs starting rotation and bullpen, especially if a few significant contributors get injured at the same time. No fan wants this situation to play out, but it would allow the team to stock up on future big league pitching assets by trading away some of their current MLB arms.