Chicago Bears: 3 reasons they will beat the New England Patriots

Under pressure

The first reason the Bears will win on Sunday is likely no secret, and so apologies in advance for stating the obvious. Nevertheless, the Bears will come out on top because they are going to apply pressure to Brady, the likes of which he has not seen this season.

According to Pro Football Focus, Brady is much less effective when under pressure — as most quarterbacks are. However, it’s a pretty significant drop off for Brady. When not under pressure, he’s completing 73.8 percent of his passes. When under pressure, that percentage drops to a pedestrian 48.0.

Now it’s important to note the distinction between pressure and blitzing because Brady’s numbers are much different when blitzed. In fact, when facing a blitz, Brady connects on 74.2 percent of his passes. This is most likely because of how good Brady is at identifying the blitz and understanding where to go with the football pre-snap.

So why is this distinction important? Because the Bears — with the exception of the Dolphins game — have consistently gotten pressure on the quarterback without blitzing. The key, however, for Vic Fangio, will be to be selective in when he brings the blitz. He will have to in order to counter the Patriots’ penchant for delivering quick, short passes. You’ll recall this is how the Dolphins neutralized the Bears pass rush. So the defense will have to pick their spots to blitz if they are having trouble getting pressure conventionally.

The other thing to keep in mind is that the defense is unlikely to have a repeat of last week’s performance in which they missed so many tackles. Their ability to tackle well has been one of the hallmarks of this defense. So I still think the Bears should stick to playing zone defense, but it will be paramount for them to tackle well. If they can do that, and get conventional pressure on Brady, they could find themselves ahead when the clock strikes zero.