Chicago Cubs: 4 questions that need answers this offseason
Will the Cubs hand out a huge contract again this offseason?
Theo Epstein and the Cubs front office have handed out $100+ million contracts in three of the last four offseasons. It looks like they may do it again.
Cubs fans have every right to question whether another big investment is the right move, as two of the previous three haven’t worked out well for the club.
Jason Heyward and Yu Darvish, at least to this point in their contracts, have yet to be worth anywhere near what they’re being paid. It seems like Heyward will never return value, but it’s way too early to make a definitive call on Darvish’s deal.
Jon Lester is the lone exception. His six-year, $155-million contract is shaping up to be one of the best signings in the history of Chicago sports. Through his first four years under contract, all Lester has done is start 32 games in each season, post a 61-31 record with a 3.33 ERA, and play a huge role in bringing the club their first World Series win in over 100 years.
Related Story. Why going after Bryce Harper is a bad idea. light
With those three transactions in mind, the Cubs’ front office will be discussing whether or not Bryce Harper or Manny Machado is worth a deal that in all likelihood be somewhere north of $300 million.
Both Harper and Machado will be just 26 years old at the start of the 2019 season. At times, they’ve both played at an MVP level (Harper actually won the NL MVP in 2015), and at other points, they’ve both struggled.
In fact, these two have nearly identical stat lines through this point of their career. Here are their 2018 and career statistics side by side.
| Year | G | PA | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 159 | 695 | 103 | 137 | 34 | 100 | 13 | 130 | 169 | .249 | .393 | .496 | .889 | 133 |
| 7 Yr | 927 | 3957 | 610 | 922 | 184 | 521 | 75 | 585 | 834 | .279 | .388 | .512 | .900 | 139 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 10/12/2018.
| Year | G | PA | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 162 | 709 | 84 | 188 | 37 | 107 | 14 | 70 | 104 | .297 | .367 | .538 | .905 | 146 |
| 7 Yr | 926 | 4074 | 522 | 1050 | 175 | 513 | 53 | 296 | 669 | .282 | .335 | .487 | .822 | 121 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 10/12/2018.
It’s really uncanny how similar their careers have been to this point. The only notable difference about their skill set is how much better at getting on base Harper has been.
Harper’s 14.8 percent career walk rate is more than double Machado’s mark. That’s the biggest difference in their seven-season stat line, giving Harper a significant edge in the OBP department.
The Cubs have been linked to Harper and seen as his likely free agent destination for at least the last two years, but the decision to pursue either Harper or Machado may come down to how Theo and company shake up the rest of the roster.