Chicago Cubs: NL Wild Card Game preview

It’s win or go home. The Chicago Cubs’ 2018 season is at stake on Tuesday night at Wrigley Field.

After an awful day at the plate in Monday’s NL Central tiebreaker, the Chicago Cubs will look to keep their season alive during Tuesday’s Wild Card Game.

The Cubs will square off in a winner-take-all contest against the Colorado Rockies who lost their own tiebreaking game on Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. CST.

With the season on the line at Wrigley Field, the Cubs will send their ace to the mound.

Jon Lester had another solid year in the Windy City, finishing the season 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA. After struggling for a stretch in July and August, Lester found his groove. Over his final 8 starts, he posted a 1.71 ERA, 8.37 K/9, and 2.28 BB/9.

The Cubs’ lefty faced the Rockies one time this year. On April 30th on the North Side of Chicago, Lester went 5.2 innings, allowed two unearned runs, walked two, and struck out 5. In his five career starts against Colorado, Lester has a phenomenal 2.25 ERA.

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Lester will be pitching after coming off of his normal four days of rest. Although he’s only pitched in one Wild Card game and it didn’t go well, Lester’s 2.55 career postseason ERA over 148 innings should inspire confidence.

Opposite of Lester will be the Rockies’ Cy Young candidate Kyle Freeland. In his second MLB season, Freeland has been lights out. He brings a 17-7 record and 2.85 ERA – the eighth-best among all MLB starters – into the Wild Card game.

Freeland isn’t a strikeout pitcher. He doesn’t have any pitch that will blow hitters away. He relies primarily on a four-seamer that averages about 92-miles-per-hour and a cutter that comes in around 87. Freeland also mixes in a sinker, changeup, and slider to keep hitters on their toes.

His 20.5 percent strikeout rate is middle of the road, good for 78th of the 140 pitchers who pitched at least 100 innings in 2018.

Freeland’s success this year comes from his ability to induce grounders and limit hard contact. His 46 percent groundball rate and 31.6 percent hard-hit rate are good for 18th and 16th among qualified starters, respectively.

This will be Freeland’s first ever playoff appearance. It’ll also be just the second time he’s pitched on three days of rest during his MLB career – the first time didn’t go well. He lasted just three innings, allowing five hits, one walk, and two earned runs.

On the other side of the ball, the Cubs’ offense is as inconsistent as they come. In the first half of the year, the Cubs scored the most runs of all National League teams. In the second half, they dropped down to eighth.

Likewise, the Rockies experienced something similar, albeit less dramatic. Before the All-Star break, they were second in runs scored. After the break, the Rockies dropped down to sixth.

In September alone, the Rockies scored 154 runs. The Cubs managed to tally just 116.

Headlined by MVP candidates Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, the Rockies offense is tough up and down the order. As well as the two just mentioned, David Dahl, Charlie Blackmon, and Carlos Gonzalez all finished with an OPS of at least .800.

The edge in pitching may fall to the Cubs, but offensively it may go to the Rockies. As it’s been throughout the season, it just depends which Cubs’ offense shows up on Tuesday.

In the six-game season series between the two clubs, the competition was about as even as it could get. The Cubs and Rockies both won three games while scoring a total of 33 runs apiece.

On paper, this seems like a pretty even matchup. Both teams, tired from meaningful games down the stretch as well as playing a tiebreaker on Monday, will come into the game stretched thin.

We’ll have to wait to see if it shows in their play, but the Rockies have been traveling quite a bit lately. Tuesday will be their third game in three days in three different cities. They played Sunday in Colorado, Monday in Los Angeles, and will play Tuesday in Chicago.

Staying put in Chicago over the last week may play to the Cubs advantage, but with both teams’ seasons on the line, it’s all hands on deck. Things will get weird and wonky at Wrigley, and one team will be heading north for a date with the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS.