White Sox: Could Reynaldo Lopez, Dylan Covey help accelerate rebuild?

Could the surprising pitching tandem of Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Covey be changing the outlook for the Chicago White Sox?

If I told you before the season that Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Covey would be the best starting pitchers (and arguably best players not named Jose Abreu) on the White Sox by mid-June, be honest…how dumb would you have thought I was?

Though Lopez pitched well as last season progressed, most probably viewed him as rotation filler as the White Sox essentially passed on this season. The team would give him a look and send likely send him back to the minors, right? Maybe they’d even trade him for a long-term piece later on, as guys like Lucas Giolito and Michael Kopech, along with the ascending Dylan Cease and Alec Hansen, seemed like the pitchers more likely to fill out the starting rotation when this team got good.

And Covey? He didn’t even start the season on the major league roster, bouncing up and down a few times before the Sox recalled him permanently on May 19. Why would we expect anything meaningful from him?

Well, here we are.

By the numbers

Reynaldo Lopez

Though the record (2-4) hasn’t indicated it, Lopez has continued being the best starting pitcher on the staff, putting up a team-leading nine quality starts in his 13 starting appearances this year. He boasts a solid 3.26 ERA and a ridiculous .211 batting average against.

Most impressively for him, in particular, has been his ability to attack the strike zone and get outs without necessarily striking out a ton of batters. He only strikes out 6.28 batters per nine innings, and hitters make contact on more than 80% of the pitches they swing at from him. But teams have trouble squaring him up despite that (.238 batting average on balls in play).

Part of that comes from the development of his slider, which wasn’t a reliable pitch for him until this season. After experimenting with the slider only about 2% of the time in 2017, almost 20% of his pitches this season have been sliders. And it’s been by far his second-best pitch, ranking just behind his fastball in terms of “runs above average”.

Coming into 2018 as a bit of a wild card, Lopez has responded to the challenge before him and given himself a spot on this roster.

Dylan Covey

Speaking of wild cards, who saw Covey coming?

For perspective, Covey has already surpassed Lopez in WAR (1.3 to 1.0) despite having seven fewer starts. In fact, he’s been so good that his field-independent pitching (2.15) is somehow even better than his already excellent 2.29 ERA.

He has made monster improvements with every pitch in his arsenal, which is showing in his 22.2% strikeout percentage. But perhaps the most important thing: he’s keeping the ball on the ground, thanks to his increased use of his sinking two-seam fastball.

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1005408274278207488

His percentage of sinkers thrown in 2018 (65.3%) has more than doubled from last year (31.5%) while his four-seam fastball has fallen out of the rotation (2.2% in 2018 vs. 29% in 2017). The result: 61% of the contact off of Covey have been groundballs as opposed to 48.5% last year. Furthermore, after giving up 20 home runs in 2017, Covey has given up a grand total of zero homes thus far this year.

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You read that right. Zero home runs surrendered.

With Giolito going through a bit of a roller-coaster 2018, Lopez and Covey have provided bright spots in the starting rotation that we didn’t expect to see until Kopech got called up. And though they’ll need to sustain their play and adjust as the league adjusts to them, it’s worth wondering what the White Sox have in the two youngsters.

Given that not every pitching prospect the Sox have will work out — Carson Fulmer and Carlos Rodon could end up in that column if they can’t turn things around — seeing a few young prospects making positive waves is encouraging.

And because pitching might be the biggest wild card about the White Sox’s rebuild, given the eventual arrival of guys like Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert to supplement Yoan Moncada and Co., solid performances from Lopez and Covey could help adjust the clock for this team.

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If they can get good pitching sooner rather than later — that includes guys like Jace Fry emerging in the bullpen — the White Sox have a chance to at least be competitive next year.

Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Covey helping lead the charge into a winning future? Let’s not get carried away just yet. But they’re definitely making quite the impact for a team looking for guys that can help them start winning in the next few years.