Chicago Bears: Jarvis Landry trade probably not worth cost
As exciting as the thought of trading for Jarvis Landry seems, the Chicago Bears would’ve been better off being able to sign him as a free agent. Now, things are more complicated.
The Jarvis Landry saga just won’t end, and the Chicago Bears continue to find themselves in the thick of it.
News started trickling out that the Miami Dolphins have met with Landry and are working with him to find a trade partner soon.
Sources: The #Dolphins have given franchise tagged WR Jarvis Landry and his representative permission to seek and facilitate a trade. It will take cooperation from all parties.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 2, 2018
On one hand, Bears fans are probably looking at this as a positive. After all, they still have a shot, if they want, to acquire Landry. And according to the Miami Herald, the Chicago Bears are reportedly among teams willing to make a play for him.
Great news, right?
Well…we’ll see about that.
Some Bears fans, including myself, were not entirely sure about the prospect of signing Jarvis Landry before Miami made him available via tag-and-trade. After all, bringing him in as a free agent was probably going to cost somewhere north of $14 million a year most likely.
With this situation, the Bears would really be paying up to get Landry now.
After all, we don’t just have to reckon with whatever pick(s) the Bears would give up to get Landry. By the way, chances are Miami would want a third-rounder or better in exchange — a reasonable expectation.
If the Chicago Bears signed him, they’d have to, first off, pay him the $16.2 million franchise tag for this season, which is already above his actual worth. And then, the Bears would have to then immediately work on a long-term deal for Landry with $16.2 million likely being the starting point for annual pay.
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Again, as I referenced a long time ago, that’s Julio Jones and Antonio Brown money. And Landry is not, nor will he probably ever be, as good as either of those guys.
As far as guaranteed money, he’ll probably seek for somewhere north of $33 million.
Now, whether you like him or not, really consider this: is a receiver who makes his living 10 yards at a time and is solely reliant on breaking tackles to make big plays worth that much money plus draft picks?
I was warming to the idea of signing him as a free agent, but this? I simply don’t buy it as an investment.
I’d sooner throw a draft pick and a contract to Allen Robinson than Landry, however dependable he is. 100 catches a season is certainly an accomplishment, but let’s think about something else. Landry basically had the same yards per catch average (8.8) as Matt Forte did in 2014 when he caught 102 passes (8.0).
That’s great for a running back, but for a guy trying to be a No. 1 receiver? Pass.
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In the end, if the Chicago Bears deal for Landry, that’s up to them. Clearly, Ryan Pace knows all of these things we’ve laid out here. And if he’s willing to take the risk, he clearly thinks Landry is worth the reward.
But if Pace passes on giving up a ransom for Landry and then paying to keep him around long-term, do me a favor, please: try not to riot.
Because the calculus of not trading for Landry actually makes more sense than doing the deal. At least, that’s the way I see it.