Chicago Cubs: Previewing the pivotal weekend series against the St. Louis Cardinals

As the 2017 regular season draws to a close, the Chicago Cubs will host the St. Louis Cardinals this weekend in a series that could determine the winner of the NL Central. As you’d expect, the Cubs naturally have been unable to push away in the NL Central while the Cardinals seem to just hang around forever.

One would naturally think that in a three-game set at Wrigley, the Cubs would be in a strong position to take two out of three. The Cubs have actually faired well against the Cardinals this season, leading the season series 8-4. However, the Cardinals just always seem to find a way to claw their way into a chance to win.

Game 1: Friday 1:20 CST, Probable Starters: Carlos Martinez v John Lackey

The Cardinals will send out their “ace” Friday afternoon in hopes to potentially move to one game back of the Cubs. Martinez has been as good as you can be for a team that has been mediocre for a majority of the 2017 season, with a 3.33 ERA  and an 11-10 record.

Lackey has been on his game since the start of the second half of the season, especially when at Wrigley Field. He has a 1.40 ERA in his starts at Wrigley since the All-Star Break and has yet to pitch a loss at home.

I’m as surprised about Lackey’s performance as anyone. The turnaround that he has had has helped the Cubs push themselves into first place. His consistency at the back end of the rotation is important because he’s typically going against pitchers that aren’t as consistent.

Wacha has not been as strong against the Cubs as Martinez this season. He has surrounded nine home runs to the Cubs in 119 at-bats. The Cubs are also hitting a fantastic .319 batting average against Wacha.

I like to think that these figures are the primary determinant in judging how a team will perform against the opposing pitcher because they are two of the more important stats to judge an offense by. If Hendricks hits his corners and earns a quality start, the Cubs should be on the winning side Saturday.

Game 2: Saturday 3:05 CST, Probable Starters Michael Wacha v Kyle Hendricks

Kyle Hendricks has shown flashes of his pitching dominance since returning from injury in late July. He has an ERA of 2.63 since his return, which is a significant change from his 3.76 ERA in the early part of the season. In his one start against the Cardinals this year, Hendricks struggled from the mound.

The Dartmouth grad went four innings with four earned runs. This was the final game Hendricks pitched before sitting out a month and a half with a hand injury.

Wacha has been quite a surprise for the Cardinals this year. Despite being only in his fourth season, there were rumors early on around the Cardinals organization that the righty could be shown the exit. However, Wacha has shut down any of those rumors by posting a 12-7 record with a 3.99 ERA.

Wacha has not been as strong against the Cubs as Martinez this season. He has surrounded nine home runs to the Cubs in 119 at-bats. The Cubs are also hitting a fantastic .319 batting average against Wacha.

I like to think that these figures are the primary determinant in judging how a team will perform against the opposing pitcher because they are two of the more important stats to judge an offense by. If Hendricks hits his corners and earns a quality start, the Cubs should be on the winning side Saturday.

Game 3 Sunday 1:20 CST, Probable Starters Lance Lynn V Jose Quintana

In what could very easily be the rubber match of the series, we could have the closest game of the series. Jose Quintana certainly has been as electrifying as some Cub fans had hoped, but he has been a serviceable starter.

Quintana Turnaround?

Quintana’s sample size obviously doesn’t stack as high compared to other pitchers on the Cubs roster. However, in 42 at-bats, the Cardinals have hit only two home runs and are batting a decent .286 against the lefty.

Quintana has started to look more like the game changing pitcher that he is made out to be in his last three starts. The Cubs are 3-0 in his last three starts, with Quintana earning a decision and win in two of those three games. While he wasn’t going against the most talented offenses in the league in the Pittsburgh Pirates and the New York Mets, it’s still promising to see him performing at a high level.

You know you will get the strikeouts to come with Quintana it’s just a matter of if you can get him to control his stuff. He relies so much on his four-seam fastball. According to brooksbaseball.net, Quintana throws his four-seamer nearly thirty percent of the time during an outing. This can be a blessing and a curse because if players time his pitch, they can do some damage.

Lynn’s Dominance

Lance Lynn is one of those Cardinal pitchers that just always had the Cubs number. Like many other Cardinal players, there were rumors swirling around St. Louis that he was going to be traded at the deadline. However, he has turned out to have a rather strong season. The thirty-year-old has managed to put up a 3.01 ERA and earn an 11-7 record.

Lynn has held the Cubs to a .235 batting average and has only allowed three home runs in 98 at bats. Even superstar Kris Bryant has struggled against Lynn, going 2-11 in his career against Lynn.

Judging from Lynn’s past performances against the Cubs, I’d have to pick the Cardinals in this game. He’s an experienced pitcher who has been in high-pressure games before, unlike Quintana. The Cubs will need to change the script on Lynn if they want to have success in what will be an incredibly important game Sunday.

What it all means

As of right now, the Cubs lead the Cardinals by 3 games and the Brewers by 2.5 games. If they hold off the Mets on Thursday, they can obviously push that lead to 4 and 3.5 games. This is important because if the Cubs were to get swept this weekend, they would still hold at least a .5 game lead over the Brewers.

It’s going to be said often over these next two and a half weeks, but every game matters. The Cubs have nine remaining games against the Cardinals and Brewers, which gives them a great opportunity to shut the door on the NL Central.

However, we can all remember the last time the Cardinals went to Wrigley in a high-pressure game…