Chicago Cubs: The importance of consistent pitching
By Jake Meister
The starting pitching of the Chicago Cubs has been fantastic in the second half of the season. With a fairly light schedule ahead, the Cubs have a great opportunity to break away in the NL Central.
The Chicago Cubs are playing some of their best baseball since the start of the 2017 season. They now sit three games above the Milwaukee Brewers and four and a half games above the St. Louis Cardinals.
In the second half of the 2017 season, we have seen the Cubs fix the holes that they had in the first half. The most important fix that the Cubs have made is their starting pitching. The Cubs core starting five owns a 3.39 ERA in the second half of the season.
This is a fairly large turnaround from the first half of the season. The starters averaged a 3.51 ERA prior to the All-Star break.
This difference may seem small considering when just simply comparing the numbers. However, it has a makes a major difference in actual games. If we round, the Cubs starters have essentially dropped off one earned run for every start they’ve had since the All-Star Break.
Finding out what the problem was
We all wondered why the Cubs were suffering from a World Series hangover in the first half of the season. There was more to the Cubs’ issues in the first half than just Kyle Schwarber struggling at the plate or a sporadic bullpen.
More from Chicago Cubs
- Juan Soto appears headed to the Yankees which is not a big blow Chicago Cubs offseason
- Chicago Cubs in the middle of chaos that is Shohei Ohtani’s free agency
- The Chicago Cubs are on a roller coaster of emotions chasing Shohei Ohtani
- Chicago Cubs Rumors: latest on Bellinger, Chapman, and Hoskins
- National insider takes Chicago Cubs out of Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes
The biggest issue the Cubs faced that didn’t seem to land enough attention was the starting pitching. The starters from last season were so efficient that a majority of Cubs fans forgot how strong this pitching staff was.
The five Cubs starters averaged a 3.08 ERA in the first half of last season. This number sits near what the starters have produced in the second half of this season, and you have seen the results. If the starters can keep their ERA average closer to three, the Cubs are going to win games.
What keeping the average ERA down does for the entire team
There is no team in the MLB that would not want their starting pitcher’s average ERA to decrease. It gives teams a better opportunity to win games.
However, the consistency of the starting pitching in the second half has also opened other doors for the Chicago Cubs. Prior to the All-Star break, the Cubs had one player (Jon Jay) with a batting average of at least .300. In addition to that, the Cubs had a team batting average of .210. Since the All-Star break, the Cubs have five players that have played at least 10 games with a batting average of over .300. Their team batting average has reached .262 since the break.
There really isn’t a way that we conclude if there is a correlation between the strong starting pitching and the recent surge in the bats. However, we can conclude that by keeping the opponents runs down, the offense doesn’t feel as much pressure to get those runs back.
The Cubs offense is built upon by being patient at the plate and earning your way on the basepaths. They are No.3 in the MLB in on-base percentage since the All-Star break. Prior to the break, they were No.20. This proves that the Cubs feel less obliged to make the big swings, and just go out there and play how they are supposed to.
A bright outlook
The strong pitching figures to keep up, as the Cubs have entered what is easily the weakest part of their schedule this season. After sweeping the Toronto Blue Jays last weekend, the Cubs could find themselves on a serious win streak. They have one remaining in a series against the Cincinnati Reds, and a weekend series against the Philadelphia Phillies.
In fact, as of right now the Cubs will not face a team with a winning record until Friday, September 8 where they will have a weekend series against the Milwaukee Brewers.
These next two weeks will tell us if the Chicago Cubs are ready to return to the playoffs. If you aren’t taking at least two out of three against teams that are well below .500, you really shouldn’t be in the postseason.
Next: How will Cubs shake up lineup when Russell returns?
However, given how strong the starting pitching has been against some good teams, I like the Cubs chances. They certainly won’t be coming against some of the leagues’ best offenses, so it’s fair to assume that the Cubs starting ERA will continue to be around 3.00.
These are the games that you look back on in October if you didn’t make the playoffs. The Chicago Cubs can not afford to let these games slip away from them.