Chicago Cubs rumors: How about a Jeff Samardzija reinion?

Should the Chicago Cubs look to a familiar face in order to fill their hole in the rotation?

The MLB trade deadline is almost here and the Chicago Cubs expect to be among the most aggressive buyers on the market. As currently constructed, the Cubs do have a strong overall roster that could undoubtedly compete for a championship. However, additions should — and likely will — be made to improve their standing; particularly at backup catcher, in the bullpen and in the starting rotation.

The Cubs have been connected to a ton of pitchers in the last month or so, with Justin Verlander‘s name continuing to pop up. Any Verlander deal would be tricky to pull off. How do you value a guy who was has a long track record, was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year, is at an advanced age and has been awful this season? On top of that, Verlander is owed a lot of money over the next few years.

Theo Epstein and company did a great job of adding to their starting staff when they landed Jose Quintana from the Chicago White Sox two weeks ago. However, they could still use an upgrade over John Lackey in their rotation. With the contracts of Lackey and Jake Arrieta running out at the end of the season, finding a starter who has long-term team control would be ideal.

Why Samardzija?

As you know, Samardzija began his career with the Cubs and grew into a fantastic top of the rotation arm for the team. During the rebuild, the Cubs’ front office did an incredible job of maximizing Samardzija’s value, trading him to the Oakland A’s in the Addison Russell trade on July 4th of 2014.

Samardzija has had varying degrees of success since leaving the Cubs. He pitched well for the A’s down the stretch in 2014 but was traded to the White Sox over the offseason. Samardzija did not pitch well on the South Side and left the team for the Giants prior to the 2016 season.

Samardzija was solid for the Giants last season, posting a 3.81 ERA and 3.96 xFIP in 32 starts (FanGraphs). However, he has given up a lot of runs this season, showing a 4.85 ERA through 21 starts. Despite the high ERA, Samardzija has not been bad for the Giants in 2017.

Reasons for optimism

If one looks a little deeper, they would see that Samardzija has an extremely impressive 3.15 xFIP this season, which suggests that he has pitched much better than his ERA indicates. His 26.1% strikeout rate is also the highest of his career and a stark improvement over his career average of 21.8%. Samardzija’s strikeouts are up and his walks are down in a big way as well. His 3% walk rate is absolutely incredible and is much lower than his 7.1% career average.

More from Da Windy City

Samardzija is striking out more batters than ever before and is not walking anybody. Also, his hard contact rate is down and soft contact rate is up. So, why is Samardzija giving up so many runs? His contact rates clearly suggest that he is not getting crushed.

Honestly, it does not make much sense and I would be surprised to see it continue if he keeps pitching the way that he is. Samardzija has a .329 batting average on ball in play (BABIP). Despite giving up more hard contact and less soft contact last season, Samardzija had a BABIP of .285 and his career average is .297. His BABIP this season is extremely elevated and based on the date shown, it simply looks like an extreme case of bad luck.

Maybe the Giants’ defense is not getting to as many balls as they should? Perhaps Samardzija has just been unlucky and a ton of balls just happen to be finding open spots? It is hard to say for sure, but his peripherals are impressive and I can only imagine that his luck will turn around soon.

Contract

Samardzija is under contract with the Giants through the 2020 season at $18 million per year. It is not an awful contract, but he is an aging pitcher (32 years old) who is owed some significant money over the next few years. If the Giants are scared off by his high ERA, I could see them aggressively trying to move him. At 40-63, they certainly are not going anywhere this season.

(Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

In my eyes, trading Samardzija would be a mistake. His advanced numbers suggest that he could be in for a big second half and $18 million per year is not bad for a pitcher of his caliber. So, if Samardzija is available, the Chicago Cubs should be extremely interested.

He was at his best as a starting pitcher with the Cubs and current pitching coach Chris Bosio had a lot to do with his successful transition from the bullpen. Getting Samardzija back with Bosio would theoretically be a great move.

No trade clause

Samardzija does have a no trade clause in his contract that allows him to block a trade to most teams in the MLB. However, each season, Samardzija has to supply the Giants with a list of eight teams who he could not block a trade to. According to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News, does not want to leave the Giants and he will block any trade that he can. Luckily, the Cubs are on that his list. The Giants are allowed to freely send Samardzija to the Cubs if they wish. This severely depreciates his market for other teams and should help keep the cost down.

Next: Predicting trades the Cubs will make before deadline

I do not think the asking price on Samardzija will be too high. In my eyes, he looks like the best potential starting pitcher bargain on the trade market. Make no mistake about it, the Chicago Cubs should be aggressively pursuing a reunion with Jeff Samardzija.

Home/Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs rumors: How about a Jeff Samardzija reunion?

By Dan Schmelzer | Jul 28, 2017