Chicago Cubs: Breaking down weekend series against the Brewers

The weekend series between the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers will have a major impact on who will be crowned the champion of the NL Central.

Background for the weekend

The Chicago Cubs continue to play their best baseball of the season. After winning the Crosstown Cup for the first time since 2013, the Cubs find themselves in a position to break away from the NL Central this weekend against the Milwaukee Brewers.

This will be the first series between the Brewers and the Cubs since the All-Star break. Milwaukee comes fresh into the series after losing two of three to the Washington Nationals, including a 15-2 loss on Thursday.

To say it’s been a tale of two halves for these two clubs is an understatement. The Cubs appear to finally be over their World Series hangover. They own an 11-2 record since returning from the All-Star break.

The Brewers, on the other hand, appear to be in the midst of a first half hangover. They have gone 4-9 since the All-Star break, and have slipped out of first place in the NL Central.

However, you can throw out every statistic of each team for the series this weekend. This series has the potential to determine which team will take a stronghold on the NL Central.

Game 1

Probable starters: Jose Quintana vs. Brent Suter

Newly acquired starting pitcher Jose Quintana has been nothing short of fantastic for the Cubs in his first two starts. He has earned two quality starts that turned into victories. The two starts were his first quality starts since June 22.

Quintana has been dominant on the mound, fanning 19 batters in his two starts. According to brooksbaseball.net, Quintana has thrown his 4-seam fastball 45 percent of the time in his two starts with the Cubs.

Brent Suter will be making his fifth start of the season for Milwaukee after being moved down from the bullpen on July 3. He moved down from the pen due to Brewers’ ace Chase Anderson being put on the DL.

Suter has delivered three quality starts for the Brewers. He has fared well so far in his stint as a starter for Milwaukee. He has allowed a total of five earned runs in four starts and holds a 5:1 strikeout to walkouts ratio.

However, given the way Quintana has started for the Cubs, I like the Cubs in this one. He has already proved that you aren’t going to need the biggest offensive night to get a win when he’s on the mound. So even if Suter pitches well tonight and keeps the Cubs’ offense to a minimum, that may be enough.

Game 2

Probable starters: Kyle Hendricks vs. Junior Guerra

This will be the second start for Kyle Hendricks since returning from the DL on July 24. The Dartmouth grad wasn’t at his greatest on Monday. He only allowed one earned run but was only able to pitch 4 1/3 innings.  This all coming against a weak Chicago White Sox offense.

However, the Brewers will be sending out the worst pitcher in their rotation in Junior Guerra. He owns a terrible ERA of 5.22 and has only earned one win in 12 starts. He has only been the pitcher of record in five of his 12 starts.

So you have two starters that have seen better days, but once again my pick is the Cubs. The knock on Hendricks is that he has had hardly any time to get back into the swing of things.

Whereas with Guerra, it’s just been plain bad. You don’t just accidentally go for only four innings and give up five earned runs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

If Guerra’s struggles continue, the Cubs should have an offensive explosion Saturday night.

Game 3

Probable starters: John Lackey vs. Zach Davies

If all goes right on Friday and Saturday, the Cubs should have the series in hand by Sunday. However, it’s still a very important game.

It’s fairly easy to tell that John Lackey is the weakest link in the Cubs rotation. His statistics tell us it could be a lot worse. However, it just seems like his intangibles aren’t there. In his last start against the White Sox, he hit four batters.

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He has surrendered only three earned runs in his two starts since the break, earning wins in both of those starts. However, his stuff continues to be all over the place. He has a 2:1 strikeout to walk ration this season. Whereas last year, he had nearly three and a half strikeouts for every walk.

The issues with Lackey’s command make this game a complete tossup. It’s just very unclear as to what you are going to get out of Lackey right now.

Zach Davies for Milwaukee has filled their ace position well since Chase Anderson went on the DL. He has not taken a loss since June 20. In his three starts since the break, he has allowed only five earned runs. All of them coming in his start against Philadelphia.

I expect Davies to continue his hot stretch and give the Brewers a much-needed victory on Sunday to avoid a sweep.

Impact

If the Cubs take two out of three this weekend, they should be pleased. Obviously, you want to win as many games as possible. However, winning two of three would put the Cubs up two and a half games in the division.

The reason that getting a lead over Milwaukee is so important is what comes after this series. The Chicago Cubs will host the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Washington Nationals next week. Both of those teams currently sit in a position to make the playoffs. It is a tough week ahead for the Cubs.

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There really is no margin for error in these coming weeks for the Chicago Cubs. Unless the Rockies or the Diamondbacks completely fall apart, it’s going to be NL Central or bust. The Brewers have had their number this season, so the Cubs will need to alter the script for what is going to be such an important series.