Chicago Cubs: Expect slugger Kyle Schwarber to explode in the second half
Despite his slow start, the numbers point to a big second half performance out of Chicago Cubs slugger Kyle Schwarber.
There is no way to sugarcoat it, Chicago Cubs slugger Kyle Schwarber‘s 2017 season has been ugly. He is hitting .178/.300/.394 on the season. For a team that expects to be competitive, that simply will not do.
Schwarber is already a liability defensively in left field, so if he is not hitting, he literally brings no value to the team. That being said, he is far too strong of a hitter for this to continue for the entire stretch of the year.
While Schwarber’s season-long numbers still look awful, he really started to turn it around later in the first half.
A great sign
From June 7th until the All-Star break, Schwarber hit .235/.339/.569 at the major league level. His average is still low but it is nice to see him unlocking that power again. Sure, it’s only 59 plate appearances, but it is still nice to see Schwarber swinging the bat well. Plus, the advanced numbers make that stretch look even better.
From June 7th on, Schwarber also put up an impressive 132 wRC+, according to FanGraphs. That is basically a statistic that shows the overall offensive value that a player brings to the table. Schwarber’s 132 wRC+ puts him in the “above average” category, according to FanGraphs’ sabermetrics library, and is very close to making him a “great” offensive contributor. As a comparison, Schwarber has an 83 wRC+ on the season, which shows how bad his early stretch really was.
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Cutting down on the strikeouts
The most encouraging part of Schwarber’s recent success has been a sharp decrease in strikeouts. Prior to that June 7th date, Schwarber had an extremely ugly 29.7% strikeout rate. There has always been a fair amount of swing and miss in Schwarber’s game but it is extremely difficult to be productive with that many strikeouts.
Well, as you have probably guessed, Schwarber’s strikeout rate has significantly dipped since June 7th. His 20.3% strikeout rate in the past month is perfectly acceptable. Now, his season-long 28.2% strikeout rate is still ugly, but he has been significantly better in that department recently. That is obviously a great sign for his ability to make an impact in the Chicago Cubs lineup going forward.
He cannot keep getting this unlucky
Lastly, I want to take a look at his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). On the season, Schwarber has a BABIP of .200. For a power hitter like him, that is completely unsustainable and suggests that he has run into a lot of bad luck. For comparison’s sake, Schwarber had a BABIP of .293 in 273 plate appearances with the Cubs in 2015.
The law of averages tells us that he is extremely likely to find more holes in the defense in the second half. Even if that BABIP naturally jumps to the .250 range, his offensive production will increase dramatically.
We know that Kyle Schwarber is a productive major league hitter. He has great strike-zone discipline and ridiculous raw power. While I do not think his poor first half was a fluke, I do think he showed some great signs prior to the All-Star break.
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If he can continue to keep the strikeouts under control and his BABIP evens out, I expect Schwarber to be a significant offensive weapon for the Chicago Cubs down the stretch.
Expect a major breakout performance from him in the second half.