Chicago Cubs: Time to move on from John Lackey?
Should the Chicago Cubs look to cut ties with struggling veteran John Lackey?
The Chicago Cubs have been inconsistent up and down the roster all season long. Honestly, it seems like Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Jon Lester are the only players that Joe Maddon can truly count on. They are still extremely talented but finding more consistent will be key for the Cubs to make a run in the second half of the season.
While it has been better in recent weeks, the Cubs starting rotation has not been as good as expected this season. Last year, the Cubs 2.96 ERA by starting pitchers was the best in baseball by a wide margin. The Washington Nationals came in second on that list with a mark of 3.60. Pretty impressive.
In 2017, the Cubs’ 4.48 ERA for starting pitchers ranks 14th in major league baseball. ERA is not a perfect stat by any means, but it does help show how much worse this rotation has been with essentially the same players.
Jake Arrieta taking another major step back hasn’t help, neither has the injury to Kyle Hendricks. That being said, nobody is to be blamed more for the Cubs’ rotation issues than John Lackey.
Lackey has been bad…. like really bad
Through 16 starts, Lackey has a pretty terrible 5.24 ERA. On top of that, his 5.88 FIP shows that he has probably been a bit worse than his ERA even suggests. Lackey’s strikeout rate has dipped this season (24.1% in 2016 compared to 20.5% in 2017, according to FanGraphs), but it is still better than his career average of 19%.
More from Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs in the middle of chaos that is Shohei Ohtani’s free agency
- The Chicago Cubs are on a roller coaster of emotions chasing Shohei Ohtani
- Chicago Cubs Rumors: latest on Bellinger, Chapman, and Hoskins
- National insider takes Chicago Cubs out of Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes
- One overlooked factor when it comes to Shohei Ohtani not signing with the Chicago Cubs
The big issue for Lackey this season has been the long ball. His 38.4% fly ball rate is a bit higher than his career average of 35.5% and that is not ideal. However, it is his 22.4% home run to fly ball ratio that is so alarming. Basically, Lackey is already giving up more fly balls than ever before and he is also giving up a home run in nearly a quarter of them.
It is not surprising to then learn that Lackey also leads Major League Baseball with 24 home runs allowed. Not exactly a statistical category you want to be leading.
Lackey has been terrible all season long. The home runs are a major concern and he has not shown any signs of being able to turn it around. The Cubs figure to be buyers at the July 31st trade deadline, with front-line starting pitching behind their number one target.
How the Cubs could replace him
Lackey will likely be safe when Hendricks soon returns to the rotation, but I am not sure he can survive the Cubs adding another rotation arm to the mix. Mike Montgomery has been fantastic as a starting pitcher and deserves a shot to stay in the Cubs’ rotation. At this point, moving on from Lackey would make more sense than moving Montgomery back to the bullpen.
A starting rotation of Lester, a trade deadline acquisition like Chris Archer or Sonny Gray, Hendricks, Arrieta and Montgomery would be rock solid. Then, if the Cubs make the postseason, Montgomery could go back to his bullpen role.
Next: Tigers catcher Alex Avila a Cubs' trade target?
When it comes down to it, John Lackey must turn his 2017 season around quickly. If he continues to give up the long ball like he has, the Chicago Cubs must be ready to make a move. Designating Lackey for assignment needs to be an option for this team to consider.