Chicago Bears: Mike Clay’s individual player statistics and game-by-game result predictions are not kind

Mike Clay of ESPN put together player statistic and game-by-game results predictions for the 2017 Chicago Bears. The results are not particularly impressive.

The Chicago Bears are not expected to be postseason contenders in 2017. After going 3-13 last season and doing little to improve their immediate roster over the offseason, expecting instant success would be foolish. With better luck in the injury department and in close games, the Bears could be a bit better in 2017 but they simply are not talented enough to expect too much of a turnaround.

Mike Clay of ESPN is putting together statistical and win/loss predictions for each NFL team. A fantasy football analyst by trade, Clay’s numbers are supposed to primarily be used as an aide for the fantasy game. However, it does still give us a good idea of what to expect on the field as well. Clay’s predictions for the Chicago Bears were released on Friday, and as you can probably expect, they were not kind.

As you can see, Clay gives the Bears a win projection of 6.3, ranking 28th of the 32 NFL teams. The only games where the Bears have a win probability of over 50% come in Week 13 against the San Francisco 49ers and Week 16 against the Cleveland Browns. Clay has the Bears projected to finish in last place in the NFC North and with the fifth-worst record in the NFL.

Individual performances

Along with projecting how the team will finish the season, Clay puts together statistical predictions for individual players. Again, these have an obvious fantasy lean to them.

The player who immediately stands out on the Bears’ predictions is running back Jordan Howard. After an incredible rookie season, the Bears are expected to lean on Howard a lot in 2017. Clay’s predictions back that up with 274 carries and 1,274 yards for the Bears’ young running back. That would lead to a YPC average of 4.6. Not bad but not near as impressive as his 5.2 as a rookie in 2016.

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Interestingly, neither Jeremy Langford or Ka’Deem Carey make the cut in Clay’s predictions. Benny Cunningham and rookie Tarik Cohen are both listed behind Howard at running back.

Clay also predicts that rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky will see some time in 2017. He has Mike Glennon starting 12 games for the Bears, with a 62% completion rate for 2,646 yards, 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Trubisky starts the remaining five games with a 63% completion rate for 860 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions. Nothing too exciting at the quarterback position.

Cameron Meredith and Kevin White are projected to lead the wide receiver position. Meredith has a solid line of 64 receptions for 791 yards on 99 targets and White comes in with 60 receptions for 703 yards on 104 targets. I think that the Bears would be happy with that kind of production out of their top two receivers. White obviously has much more upside than that but expecting too much more would only be setting yourself up for disappointment.

Defensive side of the ball

There is a host of interesting projections for the Chicago Bears on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the front seven. Akiem Hicks comes in with five sacks and 11 tackles for loss. Talented edge rusher Leonard Floyd is projected for eight sacks and his running mate Pernell McPhee is predicted to have seven.

Clay predicts inside linebacker Jerrell Freeman to have a huge year, finishing with 140 tackles, including nine for a loss. Freeman is an extremely underrated player who leads the defense from the inside.

In the secondary, new safety Quintin Demps stands out as the major contributor. Demps is a fantastic overall player who can make an impact against the run and in pass coverage. Clay projects him to have a massive impact on the Bears’ secondary, as he creates a strong safety duo with Adrian Amos.

Next: Bears' most important offensive players for 2017

There is not anything too surprising here. I do not think anybody expects the Chicago Bears to be major contenders in 2017 and the number projections back that up. It is still an interesting exercise to check out and it will be interesting to look back and see how close Clay’s projections come.