Chicago White Sox: Avisail Garcia's Hot Start Might Not be a Fluke

Advanced stats tell us how Chicago White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia’s early play may continue.

Avisail Garcia‘s early season rampage continued on Sunday, much to the delight of the Chicago White Sox. The right-fielder tied a career-high with four hits, including driving in the winning runs with a two-run bomb in the 10th inning. He now leads the American League in several offensive categories, including batting average (.465), hits (20), and on-base percentage (.511).

All in all, this red-hot start had to be what the Sox envisioned when they traded for Garcia in 2013. Yes, these statistics only represent only eleven games and 47 plate appearances worth of sample size. But it’s no reason not to be happy about one of the best stretches of his White Sox career. Garcia will eventually cool off because that’s just baseball. But a deeper look at his numbers so far leaves encouraging signs for the White Sox.

By the Numbers

For one thing, he’s hitting the ball harder than he has at any point in his White Sox career. Only about 10% of Garcia’s batted balls are considered “softly” hit, according to Fangraphs. This number is quite a bit lower than his 16.9% soft-contact average in Chicago. And while only his medium contact rate (63%) is higher than his hard contact rate (25.9%), his contact is clearly translating into more line drives, which is a plus for hitting. His 25.9% line drive percentage on his batted balls is also the highest he’s posted with the White Sox.

But that’s not all that looks better about Garcia’s overall hitting outlook lately. Compared to any season in his pro career, he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone. And on the flip side, he’s attacking more balls inside the strike zone than usual. Pitches that generally kill Garcia, specifically sliders and curveballs out of the zone, haven’t troubled him much at all so far.

Down the Road

While Garcia has played consistently for the White Sox since 2014, he’s only about to turn 26 years old this year. And while his numbers will regress to the mean some, he very may finally be figuring things out.

Some might think the Chicago White Sox should sell high on Garcia while they have the chance, as they’re looking to rebuild their organization anyway. After all, that’s the reasoning behind offloading Chris Sale and (hopefully) Jose Quintana: trade them while they’re still young and fetch maximum value.

But with him playing at a high level, shouldn’t the Sox first figure out what they have in Garcia? If it looks like he could finally blossom into a good, everyday player, it makes sense to keep him around. In theory, he hasn’t even touched his prime yet, so they could still get much more out of him.

Plus, unless the Sox can get a top-rated prospect for him that could be a star, giving him up might not be practical. Given how inconsistent he’s been early in his career, I don’t see Garcia fetching any players of Yoan Moncada’s caliber. The Sox should only give Garcia up if they can get someone who will significantly upgrade the roster.

All of this talk is premature, of course. Garcia could end up having another disappointing season offensively and again leave the White Sox wondering if he’ll ever live up to the “mini-Miguel Cabrera” comparison. Then, the team will probably need to start looking for his replacement one way or another.

Next: A look at the Chicago White Sox's long road trip

But for now, let’s take stock of the deeper positives associated with Garcia’s early performance. His improved approach at the plate may be a source of hope in what could be a long year for the Chicago White Sox.

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Chicago White Sox: Avisail Garcia’s Hot Start Might Not be a Fluke

By Khari Thompson | Apr 17, 2017

Advanced stats tell us how Chicago White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia’s early play may continue.

By the Numbers

Down the Road