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Will the Chicago Cubs’ Pitching Rotation Become an Issue?

By Matthew Squires

Jun 12, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jon Lester (34) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 12, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jon Lester (34) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Chicago Cubs starting pitching rotation played an integral role throughout their World Series run, but there is a cause for concern in 2017.

In 2016, Jon Lester finished second in the Cy Young voting. Kyle Hendricks finished third in the Cy Young voting. John Lackey pitched 188 innings and held a respectable 3.35 ERA and 3.81 FIP.

Jake Arrieta won the Cy Young Award in 2015.

Newcomer Brett Anderson had moderate success in 2015 when he pitched 180 innings and held a 3.69 ERA.

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Many teams around the league would dream of a rotation with three possible aces like the Chicago Cubs.

Cubs fans should be cautiously optimistic and temper expectations when it comes to the pitching rotation in 2017.

Joe Maddon announced Jon Lester as the Opening Day starter. The lefty hurled 202.2 regular season innings last year and another 35.2 innings in the postseason. Lester’s left on base percentage (LOB%) was the best in the league at 84.9%.  This is partly due to Lester having a fantastic year and being backed by a historically good defense. It is not fair to expect Lester to be able to do that again. His career LOB% fluctuates from low to mid-70s which will be more realistic.

Also, Jon Lester is on the wrong side of 30 years old considering he turned 33 years old in January. Fortunately, Lester relies more so on pinpoint placement of his pitches instead of overpowering batters with his velocity.

Jake Arrieta has absolutely electric stuff and Major League Baseball has noticed. He has thrown two no-hitters in his career, against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds. The reason Cubs fans should be worrisome about Arrieta is simple. His command is poor. His walks per nine innings rate have skyrocketed from 1.89 in 2015 to 3.47 in 2016. That’s nearly two extra walks a game!

Arrieta’s strikeouts per nine innings have also decreased from 9.28 in 2015 to 8.67 in 2016. Arrieta’s hard contact percentage has also increased from 2015 to 2016. Between poor command and the league figuring Arrieta out, this is his year to prove he deserves a long-term contract.

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John Lackey is 38 years old. He pitched 188.1 innings in 2016. Lackey was solid as a rock for the Cubs. He brings playoff experience and a fiery personality, but he is 38 years old. Father Time is undefeated when it comes to professional athletes.

Lackey’s home run per nine innings went up and his ground ball percentage went down from 2015. He is leaving more pitches up in the zone. If the wind is blowing out in Wrigley, Lackey might be in trouble if he does not get his GB% backup to career averages.

Brett Anderson has pitched in the league for eight years and has top 100 innings pitched in only three of them. His most recent success came in 2015 when he pitched 180.1 while a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Although his ERA+ was 100 which is exactly at league average. The question mark with Anderson is his ability to stay healthy. Anderson has had foot, hand, elbow and back injuries in the past.

Kyle Hendricks improved in every way from 2015 to 2016. Obviously, he looks the part of MLB pitcher, numbers wise. The 27 year finished the year with a 2.13 ERA, leading the major leagues in that category. Hendricks will not repeat his 2016 campaign.

Much like Lester, Hendricks benefitted mightily from a high LOB%. In 2015, Hendricks stranded 69.9% of runners on base. In 2016, that percentage jumped to 81.5% and was 13th best in the league. With some bad luck and a defensive that should regress, that percentage can drop very quickly.

Paired with the extra innings from the World Series run and the defense unable to repeat their historically good year, each member of Cubs’ rotation should regress toward their average or thereabout.

Next: Chicago Cubs' 2017 Season Preview

The Cubs will still have one of the top rotations in baseball, but it is important to temper expectations. The Chicago Cubs’ offense will win enough games to get to the postseason, taking pressure off the starters to go deep in games.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs

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