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Chicago Cubs: Jon Lester’s Most Important Pitch is His Curveball

By Matthew Squires

Oct 30, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jon Lester (34) walks off the field after striking out the Cleveland Indians during the first inning in game five of the 2016 World Series at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 30, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jon Lester (34) walks off the field after striking out the Cleveland Indians during the first inning in game five of the 2016 World Series at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports /
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Chicago Cubs ace Jon Lester finished the 2016 season second in Cy Young voting, but there is a way Lester can improve off of last year’s campaign.

With the 2015 Cy Young winner, Jake Arrieta, and 2016 break though candidate, Kyle Hendricks, on the pitching staff, it can be hard to standout in the Chicago Cubs‘ rotation.

Jon Lester did so in 2016 with a stellar 19-5 record, 2.44 ERA, 164 ERA+, and pitched over 200 innings. He also finished second in the Cy Young voting, was the NLCS MVP and helped lead the Chicago Cubs to their first World Series in 108 years.

Lester benefitted from a historically good defense behind him, but he has proven season after season that he is a top-tier pitcher.

Joe Maddon named Lester as the Opening Day starter for the 2017 season and there is reason to believe he can improve his statistics from 2016.

Jon Lester is the ultimate grinder on the mound. He does not have the most electric movement or velocity on his pitches, but he frustrates opposing batters with his pinpoint accuracy.

He relies heavily on his four-seam fastball and cutter. According to Brooks Baseball, in 2016 he threw them 1,479 and 876 times. He also has a dominant curveball.

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Lester only threw his curveball 455 times this past season, but the opposing batter’s statistics are staggering.

By the numbers:

In 2016, hitters recorded nine hits, .093 batting average, .206 slugging percentage, .113 isolated power and a .154 batting average ball in play (BABIP). Jon Lester recorded nearly 28% of his strikeouts from his curveball.

To break it down further:

RHH: 7 hits, .086 batting average, .222 slugging percentage, .136 isolated power, .125 BABIP

LHH: 2 hits, .125 batting average, .125 slugging percentage, .000 isolated power, .286 BABIP

Admittedly, Lester throws his curveball less to lefties than righties but still the point remains the same: Lester’s curveball is dominant.

The old adage is that there can be too much of a good thing. I do not think it applies to Jon Lester’s curveball. There is a plethora of evidence that is was plenty dominant in 2016.

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Jon Lester already has two dominant pitches with his fastball and cutter. If he throws his curveball more, he can add another dominant out pitch to his arsenal.

With throwing his curveball more, Jon Lester will challenge for the Cy Young again and lead the Chicago Cubs back to the playoffs.

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