The Chicago Cubs Should Trade Jake Arrieta

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jake Arrieta has been an important piece to the team’s roster over the past two seasons but the team needs to trade him before next off-season.

Jake Arrieta has become an important piece to the Chicago Cubs’ roster.

In 2015, Arrieta had a historic season for the Cubs as he led the team to their first post-season run since the 2008. During the 2015 season, Arrieta posted a 1.77 ERA, 2.61 xFIP, and 7.3 WAR in 33 starts for the Cubs.

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In 2016, Arrieta was good once again but his value to the team was more so as a leader in the clubhouse. Arrieta posted a 3.10 ERA, 3.68 xFIP, and 3.8 WAR.

Entering the 2017 season, Arrieta is entering the final season of team control. The Cubs and Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, are expected to discuss a possible contract extension before the start of the 2017 season.

The issue with that is that the Cubs should not extend Arrieta to a long-term contract. With Boras as his agent, Arrieta is not going to come cheap. Especially because Boras figures to capitalize on Arrieta’s success over the course of the past two seasons. Simply put, at 30 years of age, Arrieta is facing his first and quite possibly last opportunity at a lucrative contract.

The issue why this may be Arrieta’s last opportunity for a lucrative contract is because of the expected regression. The regression stems from Arrieta’s lack of control. Arrieta’s BB/9 ratio jumped from 1.89 in 2015 to 3.47 in 2016. Couple the loss of control with the expected decline of velocity, 94.6 MPH fastball in 2015 to 93.6 in 2016, and Arrieta does not project as a pitcher that the Cubs would be willing to sign to a long-term contract. Remember, the Cubs’ strive to pay for future performance instead of past performances when signing players to a long-term contracts.

So, what should the Cubs do?

Assuming the Cubs can not get Arrieta to sign a two or three-year contract, then the team will need to trade the starting pitcher before the end of the season. Ideally, the Cubs will sign Tyson Ross and that would make it easier for the team to deal Arrieta.

The biggest mistake that the Cubs can do is let Arrieta walk for nothing at the end of the season. That is why the Cubs need to trade Arrieta at some point during the 2017 season.

Trading Jake Arrieta could be a tremendous way for the Chicago Cubs to build up their long-term pitching depth as they look to continue to their sustained success after winning the World Series in 2016.

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