Biggest question facing each Chicago Cubs starter in 2016

Jason Hammel: Can he bounce back from a rough second half of his 2015 pitching campaign?

Last season in mid-July, Jason Hammel hurt his knee. He wouldn’t be the same after that.

During the second half of the season, Hammel recorded a 5.10 ERA across 14 starts. In the playoffs his ERA ballooned even further. In two starts, he surrendered seven runs and didn’t make it past the third inning in either game. The inability of the back-end of the Cubs rotation to produce quality starts was a major reason the team lost in the National League Championship Series against the Mets.

Hammel wants to forget about the second half of last season, and instead focus on the here and now. His performance in Spring Training thus far suggests that he has moved on from a season ago. In three appearances and ten innings of work, Hammel recorded 11 strikeouts and surrendered one run on eight hits. In these two starts, opponents have hit .150 against him.

"I know what I can do. I know what I can offer the team. As long as you have confidence in yourself, even if you don’t feel well or are not getting the job done, you have to find a way to continue to battle. Obviously the fact Joe stuck with me as long as he did[through the struggles in 2015] made me feel really good. I know I was better than that. Everybody else knows I was better than that. I had to make some adjustments. —-Quote obtained by Chicago Tribune reporter Paul Sullivan"

Baseball-Reference.com projects that Jason Hammel will record a 9-8 record and a 3.94 ERA across 162.0 innings in 2016. At the age of 33, the Cubs would take this kind of production from Hammel, especially since he projects as the fifth starter in the rotation.

The key for Hammel in 2016 is to remain healthy because before his injury last season he recorded a 2.89 ERA. It is also good that Hammel has pitched well as he has aged. His best season (ERA-wise) was at the age of 29 when he recorded a 3.43 ERA. In his age 31 and age 32 seasons, he recorded a 3.47 and 3.74 ERA respectively, both of which were well below his career average ERA of 4.49.

Bold prediction: Hammel’s second half struggles in 2015 will become a distant memory as he records a steady 2016 campaign worthy of a fifth starter in the rotation. The Baseball-Reference.com projection sounds like a reasonable estimate for his performance in 2016.

Next: Conclusion