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Biggest question facing each Chicago Cubs starter in 2016

By Paul Steeno

Mar 16, 2016; Surprise, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher John Lackey (L) and catcher Miguel Montero talk in the dugout during the fourth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 16, 2016; Surprise, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher John Lackey (L) and catcher Miguel Montero talk in the dugout during the fourth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports /
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Feb 22, 2016; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher John Lackey (41) throws in the bullpen during spring training camp at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 22, 2016; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher John Lackey (41) throws in the bullpen during spring training camp at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports /

John Lackey: Can the old man still pitch?

Last season with the St. Louis Cardinals at the age of 36, John Lackey recorded the lowest ERA (2.77) of his 13-year MLB career.

This performance defied the normal aging curve of pitchers. Can the Cubs expect a reciprocation of his 2015 performance, or will the now 37-year-old, right-handed pitcher show signs of his age?

pitchers-chart-1
pitchers-chart-1 /

Baseball-Reference.com projected that Lackey would post an 11-10 record and a 3.48 ERA across 189 innings in 2016. This doesn’t reciprocate his 2015 performance, but the Cubs would take it from its 37-year-old pitcher who projects as the third starter in the rotation behind Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon said last week that John Lackey has looked good throughout Spring Training.

"I went up to him the first day, and I said ‘God Johnny, I’ve been watching you the last couple of years and you’re getting better. You’re looking for the decline — a couple of years ago in Boston he had the arm surgery (and you think) ‘Maybe this is it. But he’s getting better. Starts with his delivery, and the next component is he really knows what he’s doing out there. In so many ways he’s exactly the same, but he’s in better shape, minus a couple of miles on the velocity. He definitely knows more of what he’s doing on the mound. —-Quote obtained by Chicago Tribune reporter Paul Sullivan"

Lackey brings valuable postseason-pitching experience to a team with World Series aspirations. He has a 3.11 ERA in 15 postseason appearances and has won two World Series in his career.

Lackey probably won’t reciprocate the 2.77 ERA that he posted in 2015 because that was an outlier that deviated substantially from his 3.92 career average ERA. However, the Cubs have a strong starting rotation, and they don’t necessarily need Lackey to post outlandish numbers to win games. If Lackey posts an ERA in 2016 below his career-average of 3.92 that is good news for the Cubs.

Lackey should continue to pitch pretty well for an old man in 2016.

Next: How about the young dude?

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