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Biggest question facing each Chicago Cubs starter in 2016

By Paul Steeno

Mar 16, 2016; Surprise, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher John Lackey (L) and catcher Miguel Montero talk in the dugout during the fourth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 16, 2016; Surprise, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher John Lackey (L) and catcher Miguel Montero talk in the dugout during the fourth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports /
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Feb 29, 2016; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Jake Arrieta poses for a portrait during photo day at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 29, 2016; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Jake Arrieta poses for a portrait during photo day at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

Jake Arrieta: Will an innings limit save his arm for the end of the season?

In 2016, the Chicago Cubs will place an innings limit on 2015 National League Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta. The idea behind the planned innings limit isn’t hard to figure out.

"There’s certain sacrifices that need to be made and I’m more than willing to make those sacrifices to be better for my team later in the season. —-Jake Arrieta —-Quote obtained by ESPN writer Jesse Rogers"

According to Baseball-Reference.com, Arrieta pitched a total of 229.0 innings in 2015 which was 73 innings more than he had previously pitched in a single season during his professional career. According to Sporting-Charts.com, Arrieta averaged 104.2 pitches per start in 2015 which was tenth most among qualified starters. The fatigue this workload put on his arm caught up to him during the postseason.

In three postseason starts, Arrieta accumulated a 3.66 ERA. In his second and third starts, he surrendered four runs in both games. To put this in perspective, he gave up four total runs across his last twelve starts in the regular season. According to Brooks-Baseball.net, velocity issues, which likely traced back to the fatigue that the regular season workload caused, led to these uncharacteristic performances.

In Game 3 of the National League Divisional Series against the St. Louis Cardinals, Arrieta’s velocity was an issue. His sinker was about half a mile slower than average and his slider was one MPH slower than average. Five out of the six hits that Arrieta surrendered came on these two pitches.

In his Game 2 start against the New York Mets in the National League Championship Series, Arrieta again struggled to get velocity on his pitches. His fastball, slider and sinker velocities were about one MPH slower than his regular season average. Three of the four Mets’ hits off Arrieta came on one of these pitches.

An innings limit gives Arrieta the best chance to pitch his best throughout the duration of the season. This plan should work.

Next: How about the $155 million man?

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