Dexter Fowler pursued by both Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox
By Paul Steeno
Center fielder Dexter Fowler is still unsigned as training camp is about to begin. The question is with whom will he sign?
Both Chicago baseball teams have emerged as favorites to sign free agent center fielder Dexter Fowler this offseason. Let the games begin.
According to MLB Trade Rumors writer Mark Polishuk, the Chicago Cubs, the Chicago White Sox and the Texas Rangers are the current favorites to sign the 29-year-old free agent outfielder. The Cleveland Indians, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants have emerged on the fringe as other possible destinations for Fowler.
CBS Chicago writer Bruce Levine reported as early as January 28 that both Chicago teams had high interest in signing Fowler.
"For various reasons — notably a slow-developing, strange free-agent outfield market — Fowler will most likely have to settle for a one- or two-year contract. As it sits, the Cubs and White Sox appear to be the two teams with the most interest in signing him to a deal. Both Chicago teams are monitoring the Fowler’s free-agent market daily, according to sources.—-Content created by CBS Chicago writer Bruce Levine"
Fowler rejected the one-year, $15.8 million qualifying offer that the Chicago Cubs offered him in mid-November in order to become a free agent this offseason. He is one of the several quality free agents that remains unsigned.
FanGraphs writer Dave Cameron predicted in November that Fowler would command a 4-year, $56 million contract on the free agent market. Because it is so late in the offseason, Fowler may have to settle for even less. Financially, his projected value remains within the realm of possibilities for both the Cubs and the White Sox.
Fowler slashed .250/.346/.411 as the Chicago Cubs leadoff hitter last season. He solidified his status as a top leadoff hitter in the MLB during the second half of the season. According to baseball reference, he slashed .272/.389/.463 from the All-Star Break in mid-July until the end of the regular season.
ESPN writer David Schoenfield believes that Fowler can help a team win in 2016 even though he is entering his age-30 season.
"Fowler is in the same boat as Desmond and Gallardo, but he’s less of a risk, coming off a solid season with the Cubs in which he posted a .346 OBP and was worth 2.2 WAR. He’ll be entering his age-30 season and his consistency is a plus: He’s been worth between 1.7 and 2.8 WAR each season since 2010. The Cubs soured on his ability to play center field but he would make an adequate defender in a corner. —-content created by ESPN writer David Schoenfield"
The fact that these two rivals are both favorites to land Fowler adds intrigue to the otherwise boring waning weeks of the offseason. Who will secure his services and which team needs him more?
For the Chicago Cubs, Dexter Fowler is more of a want than a need given the current construction of this roster.
The Cubs have a talented outfield with an average age of just under 24 years old. The team acquired former St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Jason Heyward via free agency this offseason. Although right field is his best position, Heyward projects as the Chicago Cubs Opening Day center fielder. Second year players Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler will occupy the corner outfield positions.
Fowler isn’t an upgrade offensively to any of these players. Heyward’s .293/.359/.439 slash line last season speaks for itself, while Schwarber and Soler are two of the brightest young power hitters in the game.
Although neither Schwarber nor Soler were good defensively last season (he wouldn’t replace Heyward who is elite defensively), if the Cubs want a defensive upgrade at one of the corner outfield positions Dexter Fowler isn’t the answer. According to Fangraphs, Fowler has a -64.1 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) accumulated across his eight-year career. Although this number refers exclusively to his performance at center field, it would be a major risk to bring him in as a defensive option and expect significant improvements at a position he is unfamiliar with. Fowler has played a position other than center field in only one of his 882 career games.
It isn’t ideal for the Chicago Cubs to bring Fowler in as a potential backup or platoon player because he would take valuable playing time away from one of the young outfielders. This could hurt long-term development. Can’t get better without game repetitions.
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It is a bit far-fetched at this point, but there is one possible scenario where the Cubs could make room on the roster to add Fowler. Jorge Soler’s name has been mentioned in trade rumors all offseason. If the Cubs could work out a trade for Soler, they could move Heyward to his natural right field position (22.6 UZR last season at this position!) and then put Fowler at center field. Ideally, the Cubs would receive a young, low-cost starting pitcher that they could use to further solidify the starting rotation.
However, the above scenario is purely hypothetical. The Cubs don’t need Fowler and, while he could be a nice asset in some respects at the right price, the Cubs shouldn’t try to outbid teams and stretch the pocketbook to acquire his services. The outfield tandem of Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward and Jorge Soler is elite.
Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox have many reasons to like Fowler especially since they haven’t completely shored up the outfield. ESPN’s David Schoenfield thinks that the south side of Chicago is an ideal destination for Fowler.
"He still makes sense for the White Sox, who need to upgrade over Avisail Garcia, and since their first-round pick is protected as they had one of the 10 worst records in the majors they’d only lose their second-round pick. —-content created by ESPN writer David Schoenfield"
Furthermore, Fowler’s bat could help steady an offense that struggled last season. According to ESPN, the White Sox finished 28th in runs scored, 22nd in batting average and 27th in on-base percentage last season. In 2015, Fowler finished 7th in the MLB in runs scored and his post All-Star Break on-base percentage (.389) was 22nd best in the league during that time frame among players with at least 100 at-bats.
CBS sports writer Bruce Levine suggested that Fowler could play center field and incumbent center fielder Adam Eaton could move to right. This would give the White Sox a fantastic one-two punch at the top of the batting order.
"The White Sox also fit well as a possible destination, as they could move Adam Eaton to right field and implement Fowler in center. That would give them two top-of-the-order hitters who get on base consistently and often. Eaton has a career .355 on-base percentage, while Fowler boasts a robust .363 mark. —-content created by CBS writer Bruce Levine"
The one drawback for the White Sox if they ended up signing Fowler is the forfeiture of its 28th overall pick in the 2016 MLB draft. The White Sox have a weak farm system; Bleacher Report writer Joel Reuter ranked it as 26th best in the MLB in January. A good way to strengthen a farm system is through draft picks, so having to give up a draft pick to acquire Fowler isn’t an ideal situation.However, the White Sox do have a protected first round pick (10th overall) that they still can use even if they signed Fowler.
Prediction:
It is entirely possible that neither team signs Fowler but for the purposes of this article my prediction is based on the (potentially incorrect) assumption that he either signs with the Chicago Cubs or the Chicago White Sox.
I think that Dexter Fowler will sign with the Chicago White Sox, adding an exciting twist to this crosstown rivalry. The White Sox are more desperate for roster additions right now, and they could use an upgrade at right field. Fowler also makes sense because his bat could help bring additional life to an otherwise sluggish offense.
Next: Chicago Cubs Profile: Kyle Hendricks
For Fowler, the initial excitement of signing a free agent contract will eventually wear off once the realization that the White Sox aren’t making the playoffs hits him full force. Around July, Fowler will begin to regret that he didn’t sign the $15.8 million qualifying offer that the Chicago Cubs offered him. He missed out on big money and a chance to make another serious playoff run and to help give a team its first World Series Championship in 108 years.