What the Chicago Bears will do at quarterback continues to be a daily discussion among the fanbase. Now that the NFL Draft Combine is beginning, it is also a national media topic.
The Bears own the No. 1 overall pick in the draft and that gives them a chance to take USC quarterback Caleb Williams. He is considered a generational talent.
On the flip side, the Bears could stick with Justin Fields at quarterback. He did not develop as a pocket passer like the team hoped he would have by now. He did show promise down the stretch that he can still be a good quarterback. Maybe new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and more offensive pieces around Fields are all he needs to finally reach his MVP potential.
The benefits of having that rookie contract to go along with a quicker release and a better pocket presence, though, might be too good for general manager Ryan Poles to pass up. Plus, Fields still has trade value for the Bears to get something good in terms of draft compensation back in a deal.
At the same time, the defense emerged at the end of the season as one of the best in the league. it just needs that second edge-rushing threat to team up with Montez Sweat. The offense needs a center and a couple of wide receivers. If Poles achieves those upgrades, this could be a playoff contender. The problem is a rookie quarterback still finding his way in the NFL could hamper those hopes.
That is one reason the Bears could stick with Justin Fields and trade the No. 1 overall pick for the second year in a row. In fact, longtime NFL insider Peter King suggested that in his column on Monday.
What could those trade packages look like?
King speculated the Bears could get three picks back from the Commanders. There are other places out there that project the Bears getting more from Washington.
If you run the Pro Football Network mock draft simulator, you will always get this offer from the Commanders...
That would be a great haul of picks as it would give the Chicago Bears six picks in the top 75. Plus, this trade offer sends the second-round pick the Bears used to acquire Sweat from the Commanders back to Chicago. Now that would be a massive win for the Bears.
That would be some serious draft capital to use to build around Justin Fields. The Bears would still be in a spot to draft Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. or trade down again to a team that wants to jump ahead of the New England Patriots to get Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels.
However, if you use the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart, the No. 1 pick is worth 3000 points. Teams use this type of value chart to get an accurate measurement of whether they are getting a good return on a trade or making sure they are not giving up too much.
In this case, the picks Washington would trade in this deal equal 3895 for the current year and a future first-round pick. The Bears would get a 129% return. That might be in line as usually the receiving team wants to get an additional markup, especially when it comes to quarterbacks.
💻 @MoveTheSticks
— Rich Eisen Show (@RichEisenShow) February 26, 2024
If #DaBears choose to keep Justin Fields and trade the 1st overall pick, what kind of haul could they expect to receive? #NFLCombine #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/mlhyvmBCyt
At the same time, that takes away a key draft strength the Commanders have right now. They head into the draft with two second-round picks and two third-round choices although one of them comes at pick 101. This move would eliminate Washington having four picks in the top 75. The Commanders might decide to go with Maye instead and keep that draft capital.
NFL Network's Ali Bhanpuri put together a proposal where the Commanders fork over 125% of the value of the No. 1 overall pick.
This offer is the same as Pro Football Network's except Washington sends their lower third-round pick (the one they are getting from San Francisco for Chase Young). Now for the Commanders, this seems like a trade they could stomach as they would still get to salvage at least one third-round pick that is in the top 100.
The Bears recoup their second-round pick plus another top-40 selection. That means the Bears would have two firsts and two seconds to add more around Fields or bolster the defense. That is a pretty tempting offer.
At the same time, Poles might want future assets and a player like what he got last year from the Carolina Panthers. The problem is swapping a spot is probably not going to yield a top player like Terry McLaurin, Daron Payne, or Jonathan Allen.
First, the Commanders are not in a messy salary cap spot. Second, Washington could send over 100% in value by swapping first-round picks and sending a second-round pick. The Commanders might be desperate, but the Bears would have to create a major bidding war for Washington to give up players.
Future draft picks are something Poles might be able to get in his mark-up demand. A package could look something like this where both parties might think is sensible and historic.
In this scenario, the Commanders get to keep the Bears' second-round pick they got from the Montez Sweat deal. In return, Poles nabs future assets that can pay dividends for three drafts much like he is currently getting from the Panthers.
This meets the current Jimmy Johnson trade value return of over 100% while the Commanders roll the dice to see if Williams elevates the Commanders to make it worth mortgaging the future.
The Bears once traded two first-round picks for Jay Cutler coming off a Pro Bowl season, so two firsts for a quarterback who has never played a down is reasonable. The Bears also punt on trying to get the premium in this year's draft for future draft assets. Again, it comes down to what Ryan Poles will consider historic.