The Chicago Bears are set to kick off their 2023 season this Sunday at Soldier Field against their bitter rival, the Green Bay Packers.
The Bears have defeated the Packers just 15 times since 1992. The season is more than just a Week 1 matchup as the Chicago Bears need to snap a 10-game losing streak.
Losing last season was done by design. The offseason was drawn up to get the franchise back to winning games.
How many wins the roster upgrades provide depends on Justin Fields taking a step forward in the passing game.
The Chicago Bears are hoping that this team takes big steps in 2023.
The defense needs to avoid getting run over while pressuring the quarterback. Finally, injuries cannot ravage the roster as it did last year.
The roster improvements are not enough to get this team into the Super Bowl. At best, the Bears are a fringe playoff team.
The only reason Chicago has hopes of winning the NFC North is because the division is wide open now that Aaron Rodgers is with the New York Jets.
Also, the schedule is favorable–for now. Injuries or unexpected team exceeding expectations can make the slate go from weak to difficult.
That is why predicting game-by-game results before the season starts is never easy. Attrition like what happened last season took the Chicago Bears from a possible five to seven-win team to the worst record in the NFL.
Also, the old saying goes that anything can happen in the NFL on any given Sunday. That means going through each game and placing a certain result can backfire.
That is why this prediction exercise will first go over setting reasonable expectations and then cover games the Bears should win, might win, and possibly lose.
The Chicago Bears have certain expectations coming into the 2023 season.
Double-digit wins are exceeding any hopes for this season.
That means Justin Fields is slinging the ball all over the field (no play on words intended) at an MVP level. D.J. Moore, Chase Claypool, Darnell Mooney, and Cole Kmet are making big plays in the passing game.
The running game is still the best in the league and the offense is putting up points every week. Plus, the offensive line is holding its own.
The defense is pressuring the quarterback thanks to Yannick Ngakoue and DeMarcus Walker while also playing solidly enough up the middle to not get the ball run down its throat.
Eddie Jackson and Tyrique Stevenson are picking off passes and the back seven of the defense is playing up to its immense potential.
The team is relatively healthy throughout the season. It also means the Chicago Bears pick up at least three surprise victories and only lose the games they are supposed to be defeated in.
Seven to nine wins meet expectations.
Fields is taking a step in the passing game, but it is more moderate. The offensive line has problems, but nowhere near the issues the group had last year.
Moore makes plays but there are games where Claypool is non-existent and Mooney looks like he is still recovering from his ankle injury.
The offense has games where it looks great but still has games where the unit struggles to score. There are also weeks where the offense puts up points but not enough because the defense still cannot stop the opponent from scoring.
Also, the Bears have some injury issues but it is not enough to prevent them from winning some games.
Seven wins seems more likely although the Chicago Bears could get eight or nine W’s by getting two surprise victories.
Although the only way seven to nine wins would be a disappointment is if Fields does not take the next step forward as a passer.
This franchise needs a clear answer on whether Justin is the franchise quarterback. If the team does not get that evidence, it is another offseason where the team is in limbo about what to do at quarterback.
Six or less victories will be a huge disappointment.
Any improvement over three favorable results is better than nothing. Still, the moves made in the offseason should be enough to have this franchise improve by four wins.
11 losses or more would feel like the team still has not made enough improvement to be hopeful that the Chicago Bears could be a contender in 2024 and beyond.
Also losing more than 10 games means Justin Fields has not progressed in the passing. At least the team gets an answer on their quarterback’s future and can try to move on.
At the same time, if the Bears lose 11 games or more, it might mean Justin has missed significant time with injuries.
In addition, this outcome is probably a result of a team decimated by injuries. The offensive and defensive line continues to be awful.
It is a repeat of 2022 except no grace should be given as everyone accepted the defeats because it got the No. 1 overall pick. This season is supposed to be about getting a top-five pick because the Carolina Panthers are awful, not the Bears.
Plus, asking Bears fans to sit through another awful season means general manager Ryan Poles’ roster upgrades failed. Then we have a new set of concerns with the general manager.
The Chicago Bears have a very interesting and favorable schedule this season.
The games the Chicago Bears should get victories in are…
- Week 7 against the Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 10 against the Panthers
- Week 16 against the Arizona Cardinals
- Week 17 against the Atlanta Falcons
The Raiders have Jimmy G starting at quarterback. Garoppolo wins games when he is healthy. That is the problem for Las Vegas as Jimmy will likely be hurt at some point this season.
Offensively, the Raiders have Brandon Jacobs at running back and he has the potential to run over the Bears defensive line. Davante Adams can still make big plays.
The Raiders defense might be worse than the Bears. If Chicago’s offense is playing well, the Bears should win in a shootout.
The Panthers’ offensive line issues are worse than the Chicago Bears. Rookie quarterback Bryce Young is the player the Panthers traded up with the Bears to get.
He has the talent to be a franchise quarterback, but he also has the frame to get him knocked out of the NFL. Young should have enough film on him by that time for the Bears to game plan to take away his strengths.
The Cardinals are tanking for Caleb Williams. Kyler Murray might be playing by then but it seems clear Arizona wants Caleb Williams and to move on from Murray. Even with Murray on the field, Arizona is talent-deficient like the Bears were last season.
The Falcons have to come to Chicago in December. Desmond Ridder is the starting quarterback. It is a huge roll of the dice that he will be a good quarterback. The weather and the chances Ridder will be bad should give the Bears a W.
The matchups the Bears have a good shot at winning are…
- Week 1 against the Packers and Week 18 at Green Bay
- Week 4 against the Denver Broncos
- Week 6 against the Minnesota Vikings
- Week 14 against the Detroit Lions
For the first time since 1991, the Packers will come into Soldier Field without Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers on the roster. Those two quarterbacks dominated the Bears for 46 victories. Brett Hundley was the only other Packers starting quarterback since 1992 to get a win over Chicago.
Jordan Love is now the starter after sitting behind Rodgers for three seasons. The former first-round pick has talent and there is some fear he will carry on the Hall of Fame quarterback tradition in Green Bay.
He has started just one game, so there is a good chance for the Bears to get some victories over him early in his career if he turns out to be that good.
Although, the chances of the Packers having a third consecutive great quarterback cannot happen variance-wise. Plus, Green Bay has a very young offense and that should give the Bears a shot to start turning the rivalry back in their favor.
The Broncos come to town with Sean Payton as their new head coach. The hope is he can turn quarterback Russell Wilson’s career around after a horrible 2022 season.
Wilson looked cooked last year and threw a ton of interceptions. If his decline continues, the Bears have a great shot to get a victory.
The Vikings have always had trouble playing at Soldier Field. The Lions are riding high after closing last season strong. Whenever these two rivals meet outdoors, the Bears always have a chance to win.
These are the games where Chicago will probably pick up some defeats…
- Week 2 at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 5 at the Washington Commanders
- Week 15 at the Cleveland Browns
All three teams have enough holes on their roster that you cannot say the game will be over after the coin flip. They just happen to be a bad matchup for the Chicago Bears.
The Buccaneers tapped Baker Mayfield to replace Tom Brady who retired. While that should have Chicago Bears fans feeling confident, Mayfield finished the 2022 season strong with the Los Angeles Rams.
In addition, it will be hot in Tampa, and they still have defensive tackle Vita Vea who has consistently destroyed the Bears offensive line.
The Commanders are rolling out Sam Howell as their starting quarterback. Remember, Washington still has Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, and Montez Sweat who beat up Fields and the offensive line last year.
Quarterback Deshaun Watson looked rusty for the Browns last season after a long layoff because of his legal issues. The Browns still have Myles Garrett. Fields is returning to the scene of his first-ever NFL start where he was sacked nine times and 4.5 of those sacks came from Garrett.
Here are matchups the Bears will lose.
- Week 3 at the Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 8 at the Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 9 at the New Orleans Saints
- Week 11 at the Lions
- Week 12 at the Vikings
The only hope against the Chiefs is that Fields plays at a level that can match Patrick Mahomes. There is just too much of a talent disparity that the only hope the Bears have is if the Chiefs are decimated by injuries.
Justin Herbert is going to sling the ball all over the field against Chicago’s defense. The Saints have Derrick Carr at QB and are expected to be much better.
The Lions should be amped up for this game and the Bears have had trouble playing at US Bank Field.