Major League Baseball’s trade deadline is fast approaching and the Chicago White Sox are expected to be sellers. The Sox are 16 games under .500 and nine games back of the division-leading Minnesota Twins.
Unless the Twins, Cleveland Guardians, and Detroit Tigers all forfeit the rest of their games, there is no way the White Sox are making the playoffs.
So the Chicago White Sox are reportedly going to trade off players set to be free agents after the season. That means Lucas Giolito, Keynan Middleton, Lance Lynn, Tim Anderson (both Lynn and Anderson have club options), and Yasmani Grandal are on the trading block.
Two players reported to be untouchable are pitcher Dylan Cease and centerfielder Luis Robert Jr. That is not going to stop some teams from making an offer.
There is a rumor out there that the Houston Astros view Cease as their dream deadline acquisition. Another rumor out there is the Astros are thinking of an even bigger deal by going after Cease and Robert Jr.
The Astros have discussed the possibility of trading for Dylan Cease AND Luis Robert Jr, per people familiar with the process.
— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) July 19, 2023
It'd require several big league and fringe talent, but there is momentum.
Have fun with that info.
Cease is having a down year from last season when he was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young. Cease is still a 1.6 bWAR player. He will not become a free agent until 2026.
Robert Jr. is having an MVP-caliber season and made his first All-Star Game. Robert Jr. is a 4.3 bWAR player with a .901 OPS and 27 home runs. He is under team control through 2027.
If the Chicago White Sox make trades to do a retool for next season or a full-out rebuild, Cease and Robert Jr. should be centerpieces of those Sox teams. Both are still in the mid-20s and both have a lot of team control left. They are still very productive players that can anchor a team.
Although, the last time Hahn did a rebuild, it took three seasons to get back into contention.
A couple #WhiteSox things:
— Herb Lawrence (@Ecnerwal23) July 17, 2023
Winning is better than losing so I’m glad that they performed well in Atlanta
Nothing changes the trajectory that Rick Hahn should be well on his way on. Sell everything he can
But don’t sell low just because.
I just hope he executes it well
By that point, Cease will be nearing free agency and Robert Jr. will only have two years left of team control.
The Chicago White Sox should be listening to all trade offers out there.
The problem is the Astros have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. They have just one player in MLB Pipeline’s top 100.
Drew Gilbert is the Astros’ top prospect, and he bats left-handed–something the Sox always need.
He is currently struggling in Double-A. His slash line for the Corpus Christi Hooks is .214/.336/.313. He went from having a 1.107 OPS at High-A Ashville to .649 in Corpus.
Gilbert also has 12 homers in 300 minor league at-bats. Past trade markets have shown the prospect cost is pretty steep.
Last year’s trade market saw Juan Soto and Luis Castillo get dealt. Robert Jr. still has not reached Juan Soto’s level but if he can stay healthy, he has a chance. Cease has shown he can be an ace of a pitching staff.
The San Diego Padres traded six players to the Washington Nationals for Soto including their No. 1, No. 3, and No. 14 prospects.
The Seattle Mariners sent four prospects to the Cincinnati Reds. That package included the Mariners’ No. 1, No. 3, and No. 5 prospect.
Baseball-Reference.com has Frankie Montas listed as a similar player to Cease. At last year’s deadline, the New York Yankees traded four prospects in their top 25 to the Oakland Athletics to acquire Montas.
Those players were all traded individually. The Astros are rumored to be going big and want to get Robert Jr. and Cease from the Chicago White Sox. Two players that are in their mid-20s and under team control for a few more seasons.
That is going to require an even bigger package of prospects and Major League players.
It would take a lot to get Hahn to agree to a trade.
Baseballtradevalues.com’s trade simulator would not even let a mock trade go through with the number of players Houston would have to give up for the Sox to get close to equal value.
After manually calculating their trade values according to the site’s standards, the Astros would have to offer the following major-league talent…
- Catcher/DH Yainer Diaz (1.2 bWAR)
- Centerfielder Chas McCormick (2.5 bWAR)
- Shortstop Jeremy Peña (1.7 bWAR)
- Pitcher Cristian Javier (1.0 bWAR)
They would then have to offer the following prospects…
- Outfielders Drew Gilbert (No. 1 prospect), Jacob Melton (No. 2 prospect), and Ryan Clifford (No. 4 prospect)
- Pitchers Colton Gordon (No. 8 prospect), Spencer Arrighetti (No. 9 prospect), and Miguel Ullola (No. 10 prospect)
That is 10 players going back to the Chicago White Sox. It would be an unprecedented trade.
The Astros do have Mauricio Dubon on the bench to cover for the loss of Pena. Robert Jr. would be an upgrade over Chas McCormick.
Javier’s season is like Dylan Cease’s year. Also, Lance McCullers is out for the year and Houston would need Javier to pitch to a Game 4.
A lot of these prospects are nowhere near being ready to contribute at the major-league level. Plus, Gilbert, Melton, and Clifford all hit left-handed. The Sox can always use left-handed hitting in their system but these three could block each other from reaching the big leagues.
Also, Robert Jr. has a history of injuries, and the last time Cease pitched in the playoffs, he was getting roughed up by the very same franchise trying to get him.
That is why Houston must consider it a dream to get those two. You would have to wake up to realize it would take a ridiculous quantity of players to get those two and there are too many risks to make it worth it.