The Chicago Cubs’ Future Outlook: Pitching With Uncertainty?
Coming off their first World Series title in 108 years, the Chicago Cubs have the look of a dynasty set up for years to come. That is if their pitching doesn’t let them down.
There is no doubt that the Chicago Cubs‘ future is bright. Or is there? The team won a whopping 103 regular-season games, to go along with capturing the ever-elusive World Series title. It was a sight to behold for Cubs fans everywhere. Fans to this day are rejoicing knowing that this team has a surplus of talented young players across the board to carry them into World Series games year-after-year. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber–the list goes on and on.
While there is little doubt over the Cubs being carried regularly in games by their high-potent offense for years to come, the same cannot be said about the team’s pitching. The Cubs’ pitchers as a collective unit are less of a “sure thing” than the team’s offense.
Why is that the case?
Let’s look at both the short and long term uncertainties that Cub pitchers face. One major short-term uncertainty that could very well become a major issue is the contract status of Jake Arrieta. He is only under team control for one more season. After this upcoming season, Jake is free to sign with any team.
The Jake Arrieta conundrum
Do the Cubs really want to go all-in on resigning Arrieta to a long-term contract?
His talent makes that venture seemingly tempting, given that Arrieta is just a year removed from having won the Cy Young. Still, he will be 31 at the end of this upcoming season, and paying boatloads of money to pitchers in their 30’s is always risky. At some point, age catches up. Also, let’s not forget Arrieta struggled with command at times last season. How he ultimately pitches this season will determine whether the Cubs decide he’s worth the risk of being resigned long-term. Still, plenty of uncertainty.
What will John Lackey give?
Another short-term uncertainty is status of Cubs’ starter John Lackey. He is 38 years old, and is signed through the 2017 season. While Lackey pitched solidly during the regular season, the postseason was a different story. Worrisome, to say the least.
Brought in by the Cubs because of his valuable postseason experience over the years, Lackey struggled mightily during the 2016 postseason. He didn’t make it past 5 innings in any of his three postseason starts. His struggles with command were evident by his 6 walks issued in only 13 innings pitched. Posting a 4.85 ERA is nothing to be proud of either. In short, this upcoming season might be Lackey’s last with the Cubs, and his arrow trajectory is currently pointing downward rather than up.
The Bullpen
One final short-term uncertainty for the Cubs is their bullpen status for this upcoming season. The organization decided closer Aroldis Chapman was not worth being resigned. Instead, the team traded Jorge Soler to the Royals in exchange for closer Wade Davis. Davis won a World Series with the Royals in 2015, but had an injury-prone season in 2016. He is also 31 years old, so naturally, there might be some decline in his pitching performance with the Chicago Cubs this upcoming season. Still, when he’s healthy, there aren’t many closers as reliable as Davis in both the regular season and postseason. That’s still a big “if.”
What about the rest of the Cubs’ bullpen? As evident in the 2016 postseason, Joe Maddon was very hesitant to call upon any of his relievers during pivotal moments other than Chapman and Mike Montgomery. Hector Rondon, Travis Wood, Carl Edwards Jr., Justin Grimm, and Pedro Strop struggled at times when their names were called upon to pitch. Heading into 2017, will any if not all of these pitchers step up their games, thus allowing Maddon to rest easy knowing that his relievers can close out games? Only time will tell, but nonetheless, it is still a major uncertainty.
What about the long-term pitching uncertainties potentially plaguing this Chicago Cubs dynasty? Injuries are no doubt a given. Jon Lester, who has pitched brilliantly since signing with the team two seasons ago, is 33 years old now. While he’s shown no signs of slowing down, everyone knows age becomes a major factor at some point. For the Cubs, they hope they never have to address that question with Lester in the foreseeable future. They’d rather begin answering those questions when his contract expires after the 2020 season, having gotten 4 more stellar seasons out of his arm.
More from Da Windy City
- 3 takeaways from Chicago Blackhawks shootout loss to Nashville
- Chicago Cubs in the middle of chaos that is Shohei Ohtani’s free agency
- The Chicago Cubs are on a roller coaster of emotions chasing Shohei Ohtani
- Chicago Bears quietly compiling list of head coaching candidates
- Chicago White Sox News: Erick Fedde signs two-year deal
Another long-term pitching uncertainty for the Cubs? Who starts for them in 2018 and beyond? Arrieta and Lackey may no longer be on the Cubs roster given their contract situations. In addition, who is going to fill Jason Hammel’s role as the fifth starter? Mike Montgomery is slated as the early candidate to replace Hammel’s starting spot for this upcoming season. What if he struggles in 2017?
The Chicago Cubs could find themselves in an awkward position after this upcoming season and beyond, with only Lester and Hendricks as potential sure-fire starters for a team with dynasty aspirations. That’s about as uncertain as it gets unless Kyle Hendricks proves otherwise.
Yes, the great Kyle Hendricks. The pitcher who surprised everyone this past season when he pitched like Greg Maddux possessed. Hendricks posted a remarkable 2.16 regular season ERA, lowest in the majors. He was even better in the postseason, pitching to a 1.42 ERA in 5 postseason starts. Having just turned 27, the future appears as bright as ever for this young budding star. Well…maybe. And that is why Hendricks’ upcoming season may be the ultimate deciding factor in whether or not the Cubs become a dynasty for years to come. How will he pitch moving forward? Will he continue to pitch the way he’s pitched recently, or does he regress to his 2015 form that saw him pitch to a rather pedestrian 3.95 ERA in the regular season, followed by a 5.19 ERA in two postseason starts? Only time for tell.
Having just turned 27, the future appears to be as bright as ever for this young budding star…maybe. That is why Hendricks’ upcoming season may decide whether or not the Chicago Cubs become a dynasty for years to come. How will he pitch moving forward? Will he pitch the way he’s pitched recently, or regress to his 2015 form that saw him pitch to a rather pedestrian 3.95 ERA in the regular season, followed by a 5.19 ERA in two postseason starts?
Only time will tell, but there is no doubt hitters will only get more familiar with Hendricks’ pitching tendencies the more they face him. Still, Hendricks has proven this past season that he knows how to adjust to hitters’ tendencies, exploiting their weaknesses. The challenge for Hendricks this upcoming season and beyond will be staying one step ahead of opposing hitters. I certainty wouldn’t bet against Hendricks doing this, but his track record isn’t long enough thus far to prove he can maintain his high-level of play for multiple seasons. Thus, a long-term uncertainty in the making no doubt.
The challenge for Hendricks this upcoming season and beyond will be staying one step ahead of opposing hitters. I certainly wouldn’t bet against Hendricks doing this, but his track record isn’t long enough yet to prove he can maintain his high-level of play for multiple seasons. Thus, a long-term uncertainty in the making no doubt.
All of these short-term/long-term pitching uncertainties facing the Cubs’ organization will determine how successful this team is for years to come. The offense looks to be here to stay for the long haul, but the pitching side is another story. That’s why Theo Eptein has been desperate to get a young, promising, controllable starter for quite some time. It’s also why the team has been beginning the process of drafting young pitchers.
Next: Chicago Bears mock offseason
A team destined for greatness in the following years to come can’t just depend promising star offensive players. A team like the Chicago Cubs striving for championships year-after-year needs to have just as much stability on the pitching front. And until proven otherwise, that is uncertainty at its finest.